Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jusuf Nurkic
Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER50.72025–26
NBA RANK#101of 409
PH$15.9MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN16.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.4
PTS10.9
REB10.4
AST4.8
STL1.3
BLK0.5
3PM0.6
FG%50.3%
3P%35.2%
FT%54.9%
+/--4.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Utah Jazz
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.42pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8.4 PTS · 6.8 REB · 3.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.3 PTS · 8.3 REB · 3.6 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.1%1442/2820
2-POINT55.1%1295/2352
3-POINT31.4%147/468
FREE THROW65.5%719/1098
EFFECTIVE FG%53.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.8%
AST / TO1.48
PTS PER 3616.44rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 160 | 26.28 | 12.6 | 10.36 | 3.5 | 0.52 | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| Away | 156 | 25.67 | 11.12 | 9.42 | 3.21 | 0.41 | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.6 | +1.5 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.35 | high |
| minutes | 20.4 | 26.2 | 32 | 25.98 | low |
| points | 6 | 11 | 17 | 11.87 | high |
| rebounds | 6 | 9 | 13 | 9.9 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES11837.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES30.9% of games
10+ ASSISTS41.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | vs SAC | 26 | 15.96 | +62.9% | 8 | 4/6 | 4/5 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +7.0 | 67% |
| 2026-02-09 | @ MIA | 25 | 15.42 | +62.1% | 10 | 4/9 | 3/7 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3.0 | 47% |
| 2026-02-07 | @ ORL | 24 | 14.07 | +70.6% | 3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2026-02-01 | @ TOR | 33 | — | — | 11 | 3/11 | 2/8 | 1/3 | 4/7 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -7.0 | 39% |
| 2026-01-28 | vs GSW | 23 | — | — | 11 | 4/7 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -30.0 | 70% |
| 2026-01-24 | vs MIA | 31 | — | — | 17 | 8/13 | 7/12 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -30.0 | 61% |
| 2026-01-22 | vs SAS | 35 | — | — | 17 | 7/19 | 6/13 | 1/6 | 2/3 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -21.0 | 42% |
| 2026-01-20 | vs MIN | 31 | — | — | 16 | 7/11 | 7/10 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +8.0 | 65% |
| 2026-01-19 | @ SAS | 26 | — | — | 20 | 9/17 | 7/13 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8.0 | 59% |
| 2026-01-12 | @ CLE | 30 | — | — | 11 | 4/9 | 3/8 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +13.0 | 56% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS7.3%3/41 games
10+ REBOUNDS58.5%24/41 games
5+ ASSISTS46.3%19/41 games
2+ THREES14.6%6/41 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTA | 41 | 26.4 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 50.3% | 35.2% | 54.9% |
| 2024–25 | PHXCHA | 46 | 20.6 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 46.5% | 30.4% | 66.4% |
| 2023–24 | PHX | 76 | 27.3 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 51.0% | 24.4% | 64.0% |
| 2022–23 | POR | 52 | 26.7 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 51.9% | 36.1% | 66.1% |
| 2021–22 | POR | 56 | 28.2 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 53.5% | 26.8% | 69.0% |
| 2020–21 | POR | 37 | 23.8 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 51.3% | 40.0% | 62.0% |
| 2019–20 | POR | 8 | 31.6 | 17.6 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 49.5% | 20.0% | 88.6% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTA | 41 | 50.7 | #101 / 409 | 15.9M | Core |
| 2024–25 | CHA | 46 | 45.0 | #191 / 422 | 11.3M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | PHX | 80 | 51.9 | #93 / 409 | 20.1M | Core |
| 2022–23 | POR | 52 | 52.5 | #77 / 408 | 17.9M | Core |
| 2021–22 | POR | 56 | 56.9 | #39 / 423 | 22.1M | Core |
| 2020–21 | POR | 45 | 55.6 | #52 / 410 | 18.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER50.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#101of 409 ranked
PH$15.9MCore
SAMPLE41observed games
Ball security14
Box defence56
Creation64
Efficiency43
Rebounding81
Scoring41
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+46.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+20.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-10.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY77-1.7 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
UTA
Utah Jazz
EXPECTED MIN17.6
SCORING SHARE9.7%
CREATION SHARE15.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.