Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
John Konchar
Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER40.72025–26
NBA RANK#233of 409
PH$9MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN21.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN17.4
PTS3.5
REB3.5
AST1.5
STL1.3
BLK0.6
3PM0.4
FG%46.5%
3P%26.1%
FT%63.6%
+/--2.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Utah Jazz
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED28.3pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.4 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.8 PTS · 3.4 REB · 2.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2.8 PTS · 2.2 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G2.9 PTS · 2.7 REB · 1.8 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes↑
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.8%555/1185
2-POINT59.8%338/565
3-POINT35.0%217/620
FREE THROW71.5%123/172
EFFECTIVE FG%56.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.5%
AST / TO2.84
PTS PER 368.69rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 171 | 16.46 | 4.2 | 3.67 | 1.28 | 0.71 | 0.88 | 0.43 |
| Away | 177 | 18.05 | 4.13 | 4.19 | 1.54 | 0.54 | 0.81 | 0.43 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.6 | +0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.41 | high |
| minutes | 8.9 | 17.3 | 25 | 17.27 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4.17 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3.94 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES61.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.3% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | @ OKC | 26 | 23.08 | +12.7% | 9 | 3/7 | 3/6 | 0/1 | 3/4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -13.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ HOU | 30 | 23.08 | +30% | 3 | 1/7 | 0/3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -24.0 | 21% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ DEN | 30 | 23.08 | +30% | 16 | 8/10 | 8/9 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 | 80% |
| 2026-03-09 | vs GSW | 33 | 20.76 | +58.9% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-07 | @ MIL | 26 | 19.54 | +33.1% | 2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10.0 | 27% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ PHI | 19 | — | — | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-02 | vs DEN | 23 | — | — | 6 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-02-28 | vs NOP | 15 | — | — | 3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7.0 | 50% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs NOP | 26 | — | — | 4 | 2/6 | 2/3 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -13.0 | 33% |
| 2026-02-23 | @ HOU | 24 | — | — | 5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4.0 | 63% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/43 games
10+ REBOUNDS2.3%1/43 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/43 games
2+ THREES9.3%4/43 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTAMEM | 43 | 17.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 46.5% | 26.1% | 63.6% |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 45 | 12.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 45.1% | 37.1% | 87.5% |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 54 | 21.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 42.3% | 31.7% | 84.0% |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 72 | 20.7 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 43.1% | 33.9% | 77.8% |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 72 | 17.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 41.3% | 55.1% |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 43 | 13.4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 50.0% | 37.5% | 83.3% |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 19 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 64.9% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTA | 43 | 40.7 | #233 / 409 | 9M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 51 | 45.1 | #189 / 422 | 10.5M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 55 | 35.7 | #326 / 409 | 7.3M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 77 | 34.7 | #318 / 408 | 7.8M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 87 | 50.6 | #100 / 423 | 17.4M | Core |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 75 | 50.1 | #112 / 410 | 13.1M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER40.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#233of 409 ranked
PH$9MDepth
SAMPLE43observed games
Ball security59
Box defence69
Creation49
Efficiency38
Rebounding43
Scoring11
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+0.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-12.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+4.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY49-1.0 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
UTA
Utah Jazz
EXPECTED MIN18.5
SCORING SHARE2.5%
CREATION SHARE6.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
EXPECTED MIN8.5
SCORING SHARE2.8%
CREATION SHARE4.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR62.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.