CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Trey Alexander

Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Utah Jazz · current teamGCreighton

AF-PLAYERPendingsample gate

NBA RANK—not ranked

PH$—pending · how PH$ works

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN26.3governed role

NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT+0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES30

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS2.6

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS0.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS0.6

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

8 games

MIN12.5

PTS5.6

REB1.1

AST0.9

STL0.6

BLK0.3

3PM0.8

FG%55.9%

3P%50.0%

FT%33.3%

+/--0.8

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Utah Jazz

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Memphis Grizzlies36.8% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs New Orleans Pelicans52.6% winProjected 115–116

2026-10-25 · HOMEvs Los Angeles Lakers37.6% winProjected 115–114

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Memphis Grizzlies51.3% winProjected 115–116

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs San Antonio Spurs33.3% winProjected 116–113

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL32minutes

EXPECTED4.39pregame reference

DEVIATION+629.7%expanded minutes

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G6.2 PTS · 1 REB · 0.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G3.1 PTS · 0.5 REB · 0.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST

creation—

efficiency—

minutes—

rebounding—

scoring—

Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 30 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS42.7%32/75

2-POINT50.0%23/46

3-POINT31.0%9/29

FREE THROW—4/7

EFFECTIVE FG%48.7%

TRUE SHOOTING%49.3%

AST / TO2.25

PTS PER 3612.89rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

16 HOME · 14 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	16	6.38	2.31	0.81	0.62	0.25	0.19	0.06
Away	14	8.07	2.86	0.57	0.57	0.36	0.29	0.14
Home − Away	—	-1.7	-0.6	+0.2	+0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

30 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	0	1	0.6	high
minutes	2	5	11	7.17	high
points	0	1.5	4.2	2.57	high
rebounds	0	0	1.2	0.7	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

30 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

8 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ MIN	32	4.39	+629.7%	16	7/11	6/7	1/4	1/3	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	3	-4.0	65%
2026-04-10	@ BOS	15	2.27	+561%	10	4/10	2/6	2/4	0/0	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	3	+2.0	50%
2026-04-05	vs ORL	11	—	—	5	2/4	1/3	1/1	0/0	0	2	2	0	1	0	1	2	-4.0	63%
2026-01-09	@ WAS	2	0.41	+392%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1.0	—
2026-01-04	@ MIA	2	—	—	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	-3.0	—
2025-12-04	vs MIN	5	14.06	-64.4%	0	0/2	0/1	0/1	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2.0	0%
2025-12-02	vs MIN	12	17.21	-30.3%	7	3/3	2/2	1/1	0/0	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	+8.0	117%
2025-11-30	@ LAL	21	—	—	7	3/4	2/3	1/1	0/0	0	2	2	3	0	1	1	2	-2.0	88%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/8 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/8 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/8 games

2+ THREES12.5%1/8 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	NOP	8	12.5	5.6	1.1	0.9	55.9%	50.0%	33.3%
2024–25	DEN	22	5.2	1.4	0.6	0.5	31.7%	17.6%	75.0%

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

PENDING SAMPLE

ProbHoops has observed 8 games of this player in 2025–26 — below the sample floor required to rank. He carries no AF-Player and no PH$. Pending means not enough observation, never a low score.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

EXPECTED MIN3.8

SCORING SHARE3.2%

CREATION SHARE5.5%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR38.2%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.