Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Lauri Markkanen
Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER55.32025–26
NBA RANK#49of 409
PH$21MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN34.6
PTS26.7
REB7.0
AST2.1
STL1.0
BLK0.5
3PM2.8
FG%47.6%
3P%35.6%
FT%89.7%
+/--1.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Utah Jazz
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.88pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G25.6 PTS · 7.8 REB · 2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G23 PTS · 7.3 REB · 2.2 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.6%2469/5300
2-POINT55.9%1485/2659
3-POINT37.3%984/2641
FREE THROW87.3%1320/1512
EFFECTIVE FG%55.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.7%
AST / TO1.13
PTS PER 3622.53rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 184 | 31.8 | 20.22 | 6.9 | 1.62 | 2.86 | 0.74 | 0.46 |
| Away | 184 | 31.08 | 19.14 | 6.64 | 1.56 | 2.49 | 0.77 | 0.47 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.7 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.59 | high |
| minutes | 27 | 32.4 | 36 | 31.44 | low |
| points | 12 | 19 | 27 | 19.68 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6.77 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES6517.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | @ HOU | 32 | 16.81 | +90.3% | 29 | 10/23 | 9/13 | 1/10 | 8/8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -14.0 | 55% |
| 2026-02-11 | vs SAC | 21 | 18.77 | +11.9% | 19 | 7/14 | 6/10 | 1/4 | 4/4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +15.0 | 60% |
| 2026-02-09 | @ MIA | 25 | 18.56 | +34.7% | 17 | 5/14 | 2/6 | 3/8 | 4/4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6.0 | 54% |
| 2026-02-07 | @ ORL | 27 | 20.81 | +29.7% | 27 | 12/21 | 9/15 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +2.0 | 64% |
| 2026-02-05 | @ ATL | 23 | — | — | 18 | 6/12 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 3/3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3.0 | 68% |
| 2026-02-01 | @ TOR | 39 | — | — | 27 | 9/23 | 7/14 | 2/9 | 7/7 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 52% |
| 2026-01-28 | vs GSW | 33 | — | — | 18 | 6/14 | 5/8 | 1/6 | 5/5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -15.0 | 56% |
| 2026-01-27 | vs LAC | 29 | — | — | 19 | 5/15 | 2/9 | 3/6 | 6/7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -12.0 | 53% |
| 2026-01-12 | @ CLE | 36 | — | — | 28 | 8/16 | 5/8 | 3/8 | 9/12 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +18.0 | 66% |
| 2026-01-08 | vs DAL | 40 | — | — | 33 | 14/26 | 12/18 | 2/8 | 3/6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +7.0 | 58% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS75.6%31/41 games
10+ REBOUNDS12.2%5/41 games
5+ ASSISTS4.9%2/41 games
2+ THREES82.9%34/41 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTA | 41 | 34.6 | 26.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 47.6% | 35.6% | 89.7% |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 47 | 31.4 | 19.0 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 42.3% | 34.6% | 87.6% |
| 2023–24 | UTA | 55 | 33.1 | 23.2 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 48.0% | 39.9% | 89.9% |
| 2022–23 | UTA | 66 | 34.4 | 25.6 | 8.6 | 1.9 | 49.9% | 39.1% | 87.5% |
| 2021–22 | CLE | 60 | 30.6 | 14.7 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 44.6% | 35.4% | 86.6% |
| 2020–21 | CHI | 51 | 25.8 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 48.1% | 40.2% | 82.6% |
| 2019–20 | CHI | 48 | 29.8 | 14.7 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 42.8% | 35.0% | 80.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTA | 41 | 55.3 | #49 / 409 | 21M | Core |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 47 | 44.8 | #194 / 422 | 12.6M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | UTA | 55 | 60.3 | #25 / 409 | 23.3M | Core |
| 2022–23 | UTA | 66 | 59.1 | #29 / 408 | 24.5M | Core |
| 2021–22 | CLE | 62 | 44.5 | #186 / 423 | 14.4M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | CHI | 51 | 47.6 | #138 / 410 | 14.8M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | CHI | 48 | 41.8 | #198 / 385 | 11.8M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER55.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#49of 409 ranked
PH$21MCore
SAMPLE41observed games
Ball security88
Box defence32
Creation23
Efficiency59
Rebounding44
Scoring88
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+34.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-34.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
UTA
Utah Jazz
EXPECTED MIN23.7
SCORING SHARE22.5%
CREATION SHARE7.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.