Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaxson Hayes
Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER55.12025–26
NBA RANK#53of 409
PH$20.3MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN22.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN18.2
PTS7.3
REB4.1
AST0.9
STL0.5
BLK0.8
3PM0.1
FG%75.4%
3P%100.0%
FT%64.1%
+/-+1.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Utah Jazz
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED10.22pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.2 PTS · 2.8 REB · 0.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6.6 PTS · 2.9 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.2 PTS · 3.3 REB · 0.7 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS66.3%1149/1732
2-POINT69.1%1116/1614
3-POINT28.0%33/118
FREE THROW68.7%614/894
EFFECTIVE FG%67.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%69.3%
AST / TO1.08
PTS PER 3614.8rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 214 | 16.69 | 6.95 | 3.99 | 0.7 | 0.05 | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| Away | 216 | 16.62 | 6.75 | 3.9 | 0.76 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 0.7 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.0 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.73 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 16.5 | 23.7 | 16.66 | medium |
| points | 2 | 6 | 11 | 6.85 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3.95 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES122.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 21 | 22.77 | -7.8% | 12 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 6/8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -17.0 | 92% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CLE | 19 | 22.13 | -14.1% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs WAS | 20 | 21.46 | -6.8% | 19 | 8/8 | 7/7 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +18.0 | 102% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 26 | 19.51 | +33.3% | 10 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 6/10 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +12.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ IND | 36 | 16.17 | +122.7% | 21 | 9/11 | 9/11 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2.0 | 77% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 21 | 16.19 | +29.7% | 11 | 5/5 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1.0 | 94% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 19 | 13.99 | +35.8% | 8 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 2/6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ MIA | 19 | 11.41 | +66.5% | 6 | 2/6 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ HOU | 14 | 11.84 | +18.3% | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.0 | 28% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ HOU | 12 | 13.73 | -12.6% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS1.5%1/65 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.5%1/65 games
5+ ASSISTS1.5%1/65 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/65 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 65 | 18.2 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 75.4% | 100.0% | 64.1% |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 55 | 19.5 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 72.5% | 0.0% | 62.0% |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 70 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 72.0% | 0.0% | 62.2% |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 47 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 55.1% | 10.3% | 69.9% |
| 2021–22 | NOP | 70 | 20.0 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 61.6% | 35.1% | 76.6% |
| 2020–21 | NOP | 59 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 62.0% | 42.9% | 76.9% |
| 2019–20 | NOP | 64 | 16.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 67.2% | 25.0% | 64.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 75 | 55.1 | #53 / 409 | 20.3M | Core |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 59 | 52.0 | #96 / 422 | 16.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 76 | 49.2 | #124 / 409 | 14.1M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 48 | 45.9 | #165 / 408 | 10.8M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | NOP | 90 | 55.3 | #54 / 423 | 20.8M | Core |
| 2020–21 | NOP | 70 | 58.3 | #34 / 410 | 19.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | NOP | 72 | 56.7 | #41 / 385 | 19.3M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER55.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#53of 409 ranked
PH$20.3MCore
SAMPLE75observed games
Ball security62
Box defence45
Creation19
Efficiency93
Rebounding54
Scoring27
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+42.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+9.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+4.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY77-1.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN14.7
SCORING SHARE6.1%
CREATION SHARE3.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR74.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.