Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Isaiah Collier
Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.32025–26
NBA RANK#159of 409
PH$13.9MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.3
PTS10.8
REB2.4
AST7.0
STL1.0
BLK0.3
3PM0.4
FG%50.4%
3P%27.5%
FT%72.7%
+/--7.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Utah Jazz
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED5.41pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G16.4 PTS · 1.4 REB · 6.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G15.6 PTS · 1.9 REB · 7.8 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.4%433/954
2-POINT52.4%371/708
3-POINT25.2%62/246
FREE THROW70.5%230/326
EFFECTIVE FG%48.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%52.8%
AST / TO2.38
PTS PER 3613.34rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 63 | 25.32 | 9.81 | 2.87 | 6.79 | 0.62 | 0.9 | 0.27 |
| Away | 59 | 25.92 | 9.15 | 3.02 | 6.32 | 0.39 | 0.97 | 0.25 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.6 | +0.7 | -0.1 | +0.5 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6.57 | medium |
| minutes | 19 | 27 | 32 | 25.61 | low |
| points | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9.49 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2.94 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES1915.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS2117.2%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | @ PHI | 26 | 29.5 | -11.9% | 18 | 5/10 | 5/10 | 0/0 | 8/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -14.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-02 | vs DEN | 20 | 30.25 | -33.9% | 10 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +5.0 | 63% |
| 2026-02-28 | vs NOP | 33 | 30.16 | +9.4% | 21 | 7/15 | 7/13 | 0/2 | 7/8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -11.0 | 57% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs NOP | 27 | 31 | -12.9% | 11 | 5/11 | 5/10 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -13.0 | 46% |
| 2026-02-23 | @ HOU | 30 | 30 | 0% | 17 | 4/16 | 4/11 | 0/5 | 9/10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -30.0 | 42% |
| 2026-02-12 | vs POR | 36 | 29.34 | +22.7% | 15 | 3/8 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 9/12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -24.0 | 56% |
| 2026-02-11 | vs SAC | 27 | 28.71 | -5.9% | 12 | 5/8 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +25.0 | 75% |
| 2026-02-09 | @ MIA | 34 | 27.29 | +24.6% | 13 | 5/9 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2026-02-07 | @ ORL | 32 | 30.71 | +4.2% | 20 | 9/15 | 9/12 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -5.0 | 61% |
| 2026-02-05 | @ ATL | 48 | — | — | 25 | 11/22 | 11/20 | 0/2 | 3/4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2.0 | 53% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS5.8%3/52 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/52 games
5+ ASSISTS73.1%38/52 games
2+ THREES1.9%1/52 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTA | 52 | 46.3 | #159 / 409 | 13.9M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 70 | 31.1 | #385 / 422 | 7M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#159of 409 ranked
PH$13.9MRotation
SAMPLE52observed games
Ball security21
Box defence36
Creation84
Efficiency52
Rebounding11
Scoring42
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+52.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-25.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
UTA
Utah Jazz
EXPECTED MIN23.7
SCORING SHARE9.0%
CREATION SHARE23.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.