Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jerami Grant
Memphis Grizzlies current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.02025–26
NBA RANK#179of 409
PH$14.2MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.4governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Utah Jazz2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.7
PTS18.4
REB3.4
AST2.1
STL0.8
BLK0.6
3PM2.3
FG%44.5%
3P%37.9%
FT%82.2%
+/--0.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Memphis Grizzlies
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED3.78pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18.2 PTS · 3.2 REB · 0.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.7 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G18.2 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1.3 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.2%2308/5220
2-POINT48.5%1528/3153
3-POINT37.7%780/2067
FREE THROW82.1%1566/1907
EFFECTIVE FG%51.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.5%
AST / TO1.3
PTS PER 3620.4rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 193 | 32.41 | 18.55 | 3.98 | 2.18 | 2.11 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| Away | 193 | 31.24 | 17.52 | 3.73 | 2.25 | 1.93 | 0.81 | 0.82 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.2 | +1.0 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.21 | high |
| minutes | 27 | 33 | 37.3 | 31.83 | low |
| points | 11 | 18 | 25 | 18.04 | medium |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3.86 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES71.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs DAL | 29 | 25.88 | +12.1% | 19 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 9/12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIL | 24 | 26.84 | -10.6% | 18 | 7/16 | 3/6 | 4/10 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +20.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MIN | 32 | 32.59 | -1.8% | 26 | 10/16 | 6/7 | 4/9 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +9.0 | 77% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ IND | 32 | 32.43 | -1.3% | 8 | 3/11 | 3/5 | 0/6 | 2/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8.0 | 34% |
| 2026-03-15 | @ PHI | 32 | 32.29 | -0.9% | 20 | 7/13 | 1/2 | 6/11 | 0/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs CHA | 35 | 32.03 | +9.3% | 24 | 7/10 | 4/4 | 3/6 | 7/7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 92% |
| 2026-03-08 | vs IND | 32 | 32.22 | -0.7% | 21 | 6/10 | 2/4 | 4/6 | 5/7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +19.0 | 80% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ HOU | 38 | 31.01 | +22.6% | 21 | 6/14 | 4/9 | 2/5 | 7/9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-01 | @ ATL | 26 | 30.77 | -15.5% | 4 | 1/9 | 0/3 | 1/6 | 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -22.0 | 20% |
| 2026-02-28 | @ CHA | 32 | 30.58 | +4.6% | 21 | 9/18 | 6/9 | 3/9 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -20.0 | 58% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS44.2%23/52 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/52 games
5+ ASSISTS5.8%3/52 games
2+ THREES67.3%35/52 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 52 | 29.7 | 18.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 44.5% | 37.9% | 82.2% |
| 2024–25 | POR | 46 | 32.4 | 14.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 37.4% | 36.8% | 84.8% |
| 2023–24 | POR | 53 | 33.7 | 20.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 45.0% | 39.6% | 82.0% |
| 2022–23 | POR | 63 | 35.6 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 47.5% | 40.1% | 81.3% |
| 2021–22 | DET | 47 | 31.9 | 19.2 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 42.6% | 35.8% | 83.8% |
| 2020–21 | DET | 54 | 33.9 | 22.3 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 42.9% | 34.9% | 84.5% |
| 2019–20 | DEN | 71 | 26.6 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 47.8% | 38.9% | 75.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 58 | 45.0 | #179 / 409 | 14.2M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | POR | 46 | 33.3 | #362 / 422 | 7.1M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | POR | 53 | 44.3 | #182 / 409 | 13.6M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | POR | 63 | 47.1 | #139 / 408 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2021–22 | DET | 47 | 46.4 | #155 / 423 | 14.9M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | DET | 54 | 47.4 | #145 / 410 | 16.6M | Core |
| 2019–20 | DEN | 90 | 39.8 | #229 / 385 | 13.2M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#179of 409 ranked
PH$14.2MRotation
SAMPLE58observed games
Ball security60
Box defence30
Creation17
Efficiency58
Rebounding18
Scoring72
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+16.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+42.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-8.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY56+0.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
POR
Portland Trail Blazers
EXPECTED MIN21.9
SCORING SHARE16.9%
CREATION SHARE8.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.6%
-3.07 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 38 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.