Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Zach Edey
Memphis Grizzlies current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER53.02024–25
NBA RANK#85of 422
PH$18.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN39.6governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Utah Jazz2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.9
PTS13.4
REB11.8
AST1.2
STL0.5
BLK2.1
3PM0.0
FG%60.4%
3P%0.0%
FT%77.4%
+/-+9.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Memphis Grizzlies
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.92pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17 PTS · 13 REB · 1.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT6 G15.5 PTS · 12.67 REB · 1.67 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS58.1%299/515
2-POINT61.0%281/461
3-POINT33.3%18/54
FREE THROW72.1%111/154
EFFECTIVE FG%59.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.4%
AST / TO0.71
PTS PER 3615.89rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 34 | 20.82 | 9.21 | 7.21 | 0.94 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 1.32 |
| Away | 41 | 22.9 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.59 | 1.46 |
| Home − Away | — | -2.1 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.03 | high |
| minutes | 17 | 23 | 27 | 21.96 | low |
| points | 5 | 8 | 13.2 | 9.69 | high |
| rebounds | 5 | 8 | 12 | 8.63 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES1621.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | vs POR | 22 | 28.45 | -22.7% | 12 | 5/11 | 5/9 | 0/2 | 2/3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | +4.0 | 49% |
| 2025-12-05 | vs LAC | 29 | 25.29 | +14.7% | 10 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2025-12-02 | @ SAS | 30 | 24.45 | +22.7% | 19 | 8/12 | 8/12 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +6.0 | 69% |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SAC | 29 | 23.49 | +23.4% | 32 | 16/20 | 16/20 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +25.0 | 78% |
| 2025-11-28 | @ LAC | 32 | 21.92 | +46% | 5 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2.0 | 51% |
| 2025-11-26 | @ NOP | 35 | 19.09 | +83.4% | 21 | 10/15 | 10/14 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +39.0 | 68% |
| 2025-11-24 | vs DEN | 6 | 22.72 | -73.6% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 100% |
| 2025-11-22 | @ DAL | 26 | 21.61 | +20.3% | 12 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 8/8 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | +13.0 | 92% |
| 2025-11-18 | @ SAS | 25 | 20.51 | +21.9% | 8 | 4/10 | 4/10 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +4.0 | 40% |
| 2025-11-15 | @ CLE | 25 | — | — | 13 | 3/7 | 3/6 | 0/1 | 7/9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1.0 | 59% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS20.0%2/10 games
10+ REBOUNDS70.0%7/10 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/10 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/10 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2024–25
AF-PLAYER53.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#85of 422 ranked
PH$18.7MCore
SAMPLE71observed games
Ball security25
Box defence56
Creation9
Efficiency75
Rebounding93
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
EXPECTED MIN16.0
SCORING SHARE11.4%
CREATION SHARE4.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.