Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Kris Murray
Memphis Grizzlies current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER30.62025–26
NBA RANK#374of 409
PH$6.5MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN1.2governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Utah Jazz2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN23.6
PTS5.8
REB3.7
AST1.4
STL0.9
BLK0.4
3PM0.6
FG%46.3%
3P%27.7%
FT%69.6%
+/-+0.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Memphis Grizzlies
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL30minutes
EXPECTED19.77pregame reference
DEVIATION+51.8%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G5 PTS · 3 REB · 1.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G2.8 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.3 PTS · 3 REB · 2.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4.1 PTS · 3.2 REB · 1.1 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes↓
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.5%378/889
2-POINT56.7%271/478
3-POINT26.0%107/411
FREE THROW61.4%100/163
EFFECTIVE FG%48.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%50.1%
AST / TO1.54
PTS PER 369.68rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 89 | 20.83 | 6.06 | 3.4 | 1.36 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.33 |
| Away | 92 | 18.77 | 4.61 | 3.12 | 1.03 | 0.47 | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| Home − Away | — | +2.1 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.19 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 20 | 29 | 19.78 | high |
| points | 0 | 5 | 9 | 5.32 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.26 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES21.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs SAC | 30 | 19.77 | +51.8% | 9 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +27.0 | 92% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs LAC | 20 | 18.62 | +7.4% | 10 | 4/5 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +19.0 | 85% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ SAS | 12 | 19.98 | -39.9% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ DEN | 22 | 20.72 | +6.2% | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.0 | 57% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs NOP | 20 | 19.4 | +3.1% | 3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ LAC | 31 | 14.97 | +107.1% | 7 | 3/9 | 3/5 | 0/4 | 1/1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +19.0 | 37% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs DAL | 12 | 15.6 | -23.1% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3.0 | — |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIL | 21 | 15.17 | +38.5% | 5 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +22.0 | 125% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs BKN | 31 | 11.41 | +171.7% | 16 | 6/9 | 4/5 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +38.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MIN | 16 | 8.74 | +83% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/53 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/53 games
5+ ASSISTS3.8%2/53 games
2+ THREES17.0%9/53 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 59 | 30.6 | #374 / 409 | 6.5M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | POR | 67 | 25.5 | #414 / 422 | 5.7M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | POR | 61 | 25.1 | #401 / 409 | 6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER30.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#374of 409 ranked
PH$6.5MDepth
SAMPLE59observed games
Ball security52
Box defence37
Creation22
Efficiency37
Rebounding37
Scoring8
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+5.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+6.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-20.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY54-1.7 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
POR
Portland Trail Blazers
EXPECTED MIN18.2
SCORING SHARE5.1%
CREATION SHARE4.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR71.9%
-4.07 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 24 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.