Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
AJ Johnson
Memphis Grizzlies current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER25.52025–26
NBA RANK#402of 409
PH$5.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN12.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Utah Jazz2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN8.4
PTS2.6
REB1.1
AST0.8
STL0.2
BLK0.0
3PM0.2
FG%33.3%
3P%22.9%
FT%82.3%
+/--0.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Memphis Grizzlies
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED6.1pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G1.2 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.2 PTS · 0.1 REB · 0.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT7 G0.86 PTS · 1.43 REB · 0.14 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS38.7%92/238
2-POINT43.9%68/155
3-POINT28.9%24/83
FREE THROW83.3%30/36
EFFECTIVE FG%43.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%46.9%
AST / TO1.95
PTS PER 3612.85rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 27 | 11.3 | 4.89 | 1.41 | 1.59 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| Away | 31 | 11.68 | 3.42 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +1.5 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.31 | high |
| minutes | 3 | 6.5 | 21.2 | 11.5 | high |
| points | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4.1 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.21 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | vs ORL | 2 | 6.1 | -67.2% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ POR | 10 | 4.75 | +110.6% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs ATL | 10 | 4.13 | +141.9% | 3 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs CLE | 6 | 5.98 | +0.3% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ TOR | 5 | 7.55 | -33.8% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ BOS | 4 | 7.68 | -47.9% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | — |
| 2026-03-03 | @ CHA | 13 | 8.29 | +56.8% | 2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -17.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs OKC | 22 | 4.76 | +362% | 6 | 3/9 | 3/5 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 33% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs SAC | 15 | — | — | 11 | 4/4 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 | 113% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ BKN | 1 | — | — | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/38 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/38 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/38 games
2+ THREES5.3%2/38 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 39 | 25.5 | #402 / 409 | 5.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 21 | 36.1 | #329 / 422 | 6.1M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER25.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#402of 409 ranked
PH$5.2MDepth
SAMPLE39observed games
Ball security51
Box defence23
Creation36
Efficiency14
Rebounding24
Scoring27
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-19.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-20.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+3.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY6-0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
WAS
Washington Wizards
EXPECTED MIN3.9
SCORING SHARE1.9%
CREATION SHARE3.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR48.8%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN5.4
SCORING SHARE1.6%
CREATION SHARE2.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.