Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaylen Wells
Memphis Grizzlies current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER33.62025–26
NBA RANK#344of 409
PH$7.5MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Utah Jazz2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.8
PTS11.8
REB3.3
AST1.6
STL0.9
BLK0.1
3PM1.7
FG%41.7%
3P%33.8%
FT%77.1%
+/--2.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Memphis Grizzlies
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED13.58pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.8 PTS · 1.6 REB · 0.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G12.5 PTS · 2.3 REB · 1.5 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.2%509/1206
2-POINT51.2%278/543
3-POINT34.8%231/663
FREE THROW79.9%211/264
EFFECTIVE FG%51.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.2%
AST / TO1.68
PTS PER 3615.11rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 67 | 25.7 | 10.67 | 3.48 | 1.64 | 1.75 | 0.54 | 0.09 |
| Away | 65 | 27.03 | 11.46 | 3.22 | 1.69 | 1.75 | 0.83 | 0.09 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.3 | -0.8 | +0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.67 | high |
| minutes | 22 | 26 | 31 | 26.36 | low |
| points | 6 | 10 | 16 | 11.06 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.35 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | @ ATL | 20 | 23.38 | -14.5% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -20.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ CHA | 25 | 23.19 | +7.8% | 9 | 3/12 | 0/2 | 3/10 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -16.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs BOS | 20 | 24.41 | -18.1% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs DEN | 25 | 24.59 | +1.7% | 11 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 2/4 | 3/4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ MIN | 28 | 23.83 | +17.5% | 19 | 7/12 | 3/5 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10.0 | 74% |
| 2026-02-25 | vs GSW | 27 | 24.22 | +11.5% | 8 | 3/8 | 1/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-02-21 | @ MIA | 27 | 24.22 | +11.5% | 25 | 10/13 | 7/8 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8.0 | 90% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs MIN | 26 | — | — | 18 | 6/9 | 2/4 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +5.0 | 91% |
| 2026-01-31 | vs MIN | 27 | — | — | 15 | 5/13 | 3/8 | 2/5 | 3/6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5.0 | 48% |
| 2026-01-30 | @ NOP | 26 | — | — | 10 | 3/8 | 2/4 | 1/4 | 3/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 | 54% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS9.3%5/54 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/54 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/54 games
2+ THREES53.7%29/54 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MEM | 54 | 33.6 | #344 / 409 | 7.5M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 78 | 35.7 | #334 / 422 | 8.8M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER33.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#344of 409 ranked
PH$7.5MDepth
SAMPLE54observed games
Ball security73
Box defence24
Creation21
Efficiency34
Rebounding21
Scoring43
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-5.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-26.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
EXPECTED MIN25.9
SCORING SHARE10.1%
CREATION SHARE6.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.