CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Spencer Jones

Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Denver Nuggets · current teamFStanford

AF-PLAYER40.52025–26

NBA RANK#240of 409

PH$11.1MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN35.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22 WHAT IF IMPACT+0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES79

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS4.7

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS2.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS0.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

61 games

MIN22.7

PTS5.6

REB3.4

AST0.8

STL0.8

BLK0.5

3PM0.9

FG%50.2%

3P%39.4%

FT%61.7%

+/-+0.3

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Denver Nuggets

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-22 · AWAY@ Oklahoma City Thunder33.0% winProjected 112–117

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs New Orleans Pelicans67.3% winProjected 113–118

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors63.1% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ New Orleans Pelicans53.9% winProjected 115–115

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns44.6% winProjected 114–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED9.57pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3.2 PTS · 4 REB · 1.2 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G0.4 PTS · 1.3 REB · 0.1 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4 PTS · 3.6 REB · 0.7 AST

creation↑

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding↑

scoring↓

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 79 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS48.1%140/291

2-POINT62.9%83/132

3-POINT35.9%57/159

FREE THROW64.0%32/50

EFFECTIVE FG%57.9%

TRUE SHOOTING%59.0%

AST / TO1.6

PTS PER 368.79rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

39 HOME · 40 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	39	17.56	4.31	2.41	0.64	0.69	0.74	0.36
Away	40	20.65	5.03	3.25	0.78	0.75	0.68	0.47
Home − Away	—	-3.1	-0.7	-0.8	-0.1	-0.1	+0.1	-0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

79 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	0	2	0.71	high
minutes	5.6	20	29.4	19.13	high
points	0	3	8.4	4.67	high
rebounds	0.6	3	5	2.84	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

79 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES11.3% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-03-29	vs GSW	6	21.22	-71.7%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	-3.0	—
2026-03-27	vs UTA	14	21.14	-33.8%	0	0/1	0/-1	0/2	0/0	3	3	6	0	1	0	0	3	-8.0	0%
2026-03-24	@ PHX	22	21.67	+1.5%	4	2/4	2/4	0/0	0/0	3	4	7	0	0	0	1	5	+8.0	50%
2026-03-20	vs TOR	18	21.34	-15.7%	0	0/1	0/1	0/0	0/0	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	3	+7.0	0%
2026-03-18	@ MEM	27	18.96	+42.4%	6	3/5	3/3	0/2	0/0	1	4	5	0	0	1	1	3	-22.0	60%
2026-03-17	vs PHI	24	17.29	+38.8%	7	3/4	2/2	1/2	0/0	1	4	5	0	1	1	1	2	+8.0	88%
2026-03-14	@ LAL	23	14.3	+60.8%	5	2/4	1/3	1/1	0/0	2	1	3	0	1	0	0	4	-2.0	63%
2026-03-12	@ SAS	33	10.04	+228.5%	19	8/13	5/7	3/6	0/0	2	2	4	2	2	2	0	2	+14.0	73%
2026-03-11	vs HOU	20	7.42	+169.5%	0	0/2	0/2	0/0	0/0	0	3	3	2	2	0	0	1	+17.0	0%
2026-03-09	@ OKC	16	5.07	+215.6%	6	3/7	3/4	0/3	0/0	5	0	5	0	0	0	0	2	-7.0	43%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS1.6%1/61 games

10+ REBOUNDS1.6%1/61 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/61 games

2+ THREES22.9%14/61 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	DEN	61	22.7	5.6	3.4	0.8	50.2%	39.4%	61.7%
2024–25	DEN	18	6.9	1.4	0.9	0.3	32.4%	5.9%	100.0%

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#240 OF 409

AF-PLAYER40.5descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#240of 409 ranked

PH$11.1MRotation

SAMPLE68observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-37.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+12.5 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY64+0.9 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

EXPECTED MIN17.5

SCORING SHARE4.3%

CREATION SHARE2.6%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR73.2%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.