Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Aaron Gordon
Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER55.32025–26
NBA RANK#50of 409
PH$18.5MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.0
PTS16.9
REB6.1
AST2.5
STL0.6
BLK0.3
3PM1.8
FG%50.5%
3P%39.5%
FT%76.1%
+/-+7.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Denver Nuggets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED23.25pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G7.6 PTS · 3 REB · 1.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18.2 PTS · 5.6 REB · 1.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G7.1 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT7 G16.29 PTS · 5.14 REB · 1.71 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.3%2282/4452
2-POINT58.1%1830/3149
3-POINT34.7%452/1303
FREE THROW69.1%1050/1520
EFFECTIVE FG%56.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.2%
AST / TO2.01
PTS PER 3617.47rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 204 | 30.13 | 14.62 | 6.31 | 3.21 | 1.18 | 0.64 | 0.5 |
| Away | 208 | 30.56 | 14.83 | 6.12 | 3.04 | 1.02 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | -0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.12 | high |
| minutes | 25 | 31 | 35 | 30.34 | low |
| points | 9 | 14 | 20 | 14.72 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6.22 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES5914.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.2% of games
10+ ASSISTS30.7%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | vs POR | 31 | 19.39 | +59.9% | 23 | 8/14 | 4/5 | 4/9 | 3/4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5.0 | 73% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SAS | 41 | 14.25 | +187.6% | 15 | 7/12 | 6/8 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs UTA | 31 | 20.32 | +52.6% | 17 | 6/12 | 6/8 | 0/4 | 5/6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +15.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ PHX | 26 | 16.2 | +60.5% | 16 | 5/9 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 5/10 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs TOR | 29 | 14.38 | +101.7% | 16 | 6/10 | 5/8 | 1/2 | 3/5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs PHI | 19 | 17.4 | +9.2% | 12 | 4/8 | 2/5 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +17.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ LAL | 35 | 12.08 | +189.7% | 27 | 9/16 | 4/6 | 5/10 | 4/7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-11 | vs HOU | 22 | 8.61 | +155.5% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +17.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-09 | @ OKC | 28 | 4.05 | +590.7% | 23 | 6/14 | 4/10 | 2/4 | 9/10 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +14.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs NYK | 21 | — | — | 3 | 1/7 | 1/4 | 0/3 | 1/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | 19% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS33.3%11/33 games
10+ REBOUNDS12.1%4/33 games
5+ ASSISTS15.2%5/33 games
2+ THREES42.4%14/33 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DEN | 33 | 28.0 | 16.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 50.5% | 39.5% | 76.1% |
| 2024–25 | DEN | 51 | 28.4 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 53.1% | 43.6% | 81.0% |
| 2023–24 | DEN | 73 | 31.4 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 55.6% | 29.0% | 65.8% |
| 2022–23 | DEN | 68 | 30.3 | 16.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 56.4% | 34.7% | 60.8% |
| 2021–22 | DEN | 75 | 31.7 | 15.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 52.0% | 33.5% | 74.4% |
| 2020–21 | ORLDEN | 50 | 27.7 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 46.3% | 33.5% | 65.1% |
| 2019–20 | ORL | 62 | 32.5 | 14.4 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 43.7% | 30.8% | 67.4% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DEN | 36 | 55.3 | #50 / 409 | 18.5M | Core |
| 2024–25 | DEN | 65 | 54.9 | #65 / 422 | 21.8M | Core |
| 2023–24 | DEN | 85 | 54.3 | #71 / 409 | 23.4M | Core |
| 2022–23 | DEN | 88 | 55.1 | #51 / 408 | 24.9M | Core |
| 2021–22 | DEN | 80 | 47.1 | #141 / 423 | 18.7M | Core |
| 2020–21 | DEN | 61 | 42.4 | #218 / 410 | 12.3M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | ORL | 62 | 43.9 | #167 / 385 | 15.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER55.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#50of 409 ranked
PH$18.5MCore
SAMPLE36observed games
Ball security84
Box defence21
Creation43
Efficiency66
Rebounding45
Scoring63
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+3.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-28.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DEN
Denver Nuggets
EXPECTED MIN16.9
SCORING SHARE14.6%
CREATION SHARE9.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR56.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.