Final audited reference season.
Orlando MagicEAST · SOUTHEAST
Orlando Magic
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
play in
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
50.0% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 51.8
Orlando Magic finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 51.8, ranked #15 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring49.8
Defense63.8
Possession50.7
Creation47.3
Discipline23.5
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 539.9
GAME 1049.1
GAME 2061.7
GAME 4155.1
GAME 6052.6
FINAL51.8
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2054.9#12/30
2020–2131.0#27/30
2021–2226.3#27/30
2022–2342.5#24/30
2023–2454.5#17/30
2024–2545.9#20/30
2025–2651.8#15/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Paolo Banchero1 governed next-game sample82dependency-1.2 pp if OUTDesmond Bane1 governed next-game sample60dependency-0.4 pp if OUTJalen Suggs1 governed next-game sample56dependency+0.6 pp if OUTJonathan Isaac1 governed next-game sample44dependency-0.9 pp if OUTJamal Cain1 governed next-game sample35dependency+0.3 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · rebounding
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Rudy GobertMIN · rebounding94Mitchell RobinsonBOS · rebounding93Donovan ClinganPOR · rebounding93Jalen DurenDET · rebounding93Kel'el WareMIL · rebounding93PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERDesmond Bane
EXPECTED MIN33.3
SCORING SHARE17.5%
CREATION SHARE15.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERPaolo Banchero
EXPECTED MIN30.8
SCORING SHARE19.6%
CREATION SHARE19.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.3%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERWendell Carter Jr.
EXPECTED MIN28.0
SCORING SHARE10.0%
CREATION SHARE7.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.8%
WITH/WITHOUT+2.52 residual pts
PLAYERAnthony Black
EXPECTED MIN25.6
SCORING SHARE12.3%
CREATION SHARE13.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERTristan Silva da
EXPECTED MIN22.1
SCORING SHARE8.3%
CREATION SHARE5.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.0%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJalen Suggs
EXPECTED MIN19.7
SCORING SHARE12.2%
CREATION SHARE19.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.6%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERFranz Wagner
EXPECTED MIN17.7
SCORING SHARE17.4%
CREATION SHARE12.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR55.2%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.08 residual pts
PLAYERJevon Carter
EXPECTED MIN15.5
SCORING SHARE5.6%
CREATION SHARE7.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.9%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.