CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Colin Castleton

Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Orlando Magic · current teamCFlorida

AF-PLAYER34.42024–25

NBA RANK#349of 422

PH$5.7MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN26.3governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT+2.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES38

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS3.0

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS2.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS0.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

3 games

MIN5.0

PTS0.7

REB2.0

AST0.3

STL0.0

BLK0.0

3PM0.0

FG%33.3%

3P%—

FT%—

+/-+1.7

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Orlando Magic

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Atlanta Hawks49.4% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves52.5% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-25 · AWAY@ New York Knicks25.5% winProjected 109–115

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Toronto Raptors39.8% winProjected 111–114

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Toronto Raptors39.8% winProjected 111–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED0.9pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0.2 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST

creation—

efficiency—

minutes—

rebounding—

scoring—

Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 38 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS46.6%41/88

2-POINT51.3%39/76

3-POINT—2/12

FREE THROW84.9%28/33

EFFECTIVE FG%47.7%

TRUE SHOOTING%54.6%

AST / TO0.76

PTS PER 3610.67rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

15 HOME · 23 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	15	9	1.93	2.53	0.53	0	0.33	0.47
Away	23	10.57	3.61	2.43	0.48	0.09	0.17	0.09
Home − Away	—	-1.6	-1.7	+0.1	+0.1	-0.1	+0.2	+0.4

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

38 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	0	1	0.5	high
minutes	2	4.5	21.4	9.95	high
points	0	2	6	2.95	high
rebounds	0	1	4	2.47	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

38 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

3 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-08	vs MIN	3	0.92	+227.2%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	1	0	1	0	0	0	-7.0	—
2026-04-06	vs DET	2	0.6	+232.9%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	—
2026-03-19	@ CHA	10	—	—	2	1/3	1/3	0/0	0/0	0	4	4	1	2	1	+12.0	33%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/3 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/3 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/3 games

2+ THREES0.0%0/3 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	ORL	3	5.0	0.7	2.0	0.3	33.3%	—	—
2024–25	MEM TOR	19	16.1	4.5	4.0	0.8	44.9%	16.7%	81.5%
2023–24	LAL	16	3.6	1.5	0.8	0.2	56.3%	—	100.0%

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2024–25

#349 OF 422

AF-PLAYER34.4descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#349of 422 ranked

PH$5.7MDepth

SAMPLE20observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

ORL

Orlando Magic

EXPECTED MIN2.0

SCORING SHARE1.3%

CREATION SHARE3.1%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR31.9%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.