Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Paolo Banchero
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER51.22025–26
NBA RANK#93of 409
PH$22.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN38.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN34.9
PTS22.1
REB8.4
AST5.1
STL0.7
BLK0.6
3PM1.2
FG%45.4%
3P%30.5%
FT%77.6%
+/--0.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL38minutes
EXPECTED33.8pregame reference
DEVIATION+12.4%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G19.4 PTS · 7.8 REB · 5.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G21.4 PTS · 9.2 REB · 6.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G17.6 PTS · 7.7 REB · 5.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G24 PTS · 7.9 REB · 6 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.7%2020/4516
2-POINT49.3%1651/3351
3-POINT31.7%369/1165
FREE THROW74.3%1512/2036
EFFECTIVE FG%48.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.7%
AST / TO1.6
PTS PER 3623.22rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 134 | 34.45 | 21.63 | 7.33 | 4.75 | 1.41 | 0.75 | 0.48 |
| Away | 132 | 34.58 | 22.9 | 7.43 | 4.77 | 1.36 | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.1 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4.76 | medium |
| minutes | 32 | 35 | 38 | 34.52 | low |
| points | 16 | 22 | 29 | 22.26 | medium |
| rebounds | 5 | 7 | 10 | 7.38 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES6624.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES51.9% of games
10+ ASSISTS83.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ BOS | 38 | 33.8 | +12.4% | 23 | 7/22 | 7/17 | 0/5 | 9/11 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +2.0 | 43% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIN | 29 | 33.73 | -14% | 20 | 8/11 | 7/10 | 1/1 | 3/5 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +12.0 | 76% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs DET | 38 | 33.71 | +12.7% | 31 | 10/16 | 9/14 | 1/2 | 10/10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +23.0 | 76% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ NOP | 38 | 33.81 | +12.4% | 23 | 6/14 | 6/11 | 0/3 | 11/15 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ DAL | 31 | 33.79 | -8.3% | 10 | 4/10 | 3/9 | 1/1 | 1/5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9.0 | 41% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATL | 26 | 35.62 | -27% | 11 | 3/9 | 3/8 | 0/1 | 5/6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -18.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHX | 37 | 35.49 | +4.3% | 19 | 6/14 | 5/11 | 1/3 | 6/9 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +14.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ TOR | 30 | 35.46 | -15.4% | 9 | 3/14 | 3/9 | 0/5 | 3/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -30.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs SAC | 38 | 34.66 | +9.6% | 30 | 11/22 | 10/18 | 1/4 | 7/8 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ CLE | 40 | 33.45 | +19.6% | 36 | 10/19 | 7/12 | 3/7 | 13/15 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3.0 | 70% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS62.9%44/70 games
10+ REBOUNDS37.1%26/70 games
5+ ASSISTS54.3%38/70 games
2+ THREES31.4%22/70 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 79 | 51.2 | #93 / 409 | 22.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 50 | 51.6 | #102 / 422 | 18.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 87 | 51.1 | #101 / 409 | 21.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ORL | 72 | 43.4 | #192 / 408 | 14.8M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER51.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#93of 409 ranked
PH$22.1MCore
SAMPLE79observed games
Ball security59
Box defence28
Creation52
Efficiency43
Rebounding43
Scoring82
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-6.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+1.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+2.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY82-1.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN30.8
SCORING SHARE19.5%
CREATION SHARE19.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.