Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Franz Wagner
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER52.72025–26
NBA RANK#78of 409
PH$17.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.2
PTS20.4
REB5.3
AST3.3
STL1.0
BLK0.3
3PM1.4
FG%47.8%
3P%33.6%
FT%83.1%
+/-+2.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL26minutes
EXPECTED10.71pregame reference
DEVIATION+142.7%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G9.6 PTS · 1.8 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G24.8 PTS · 5.4 REB · 3 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G7.8 PTS · 1.4 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G24.3 PTS · 6 REB · 3.7 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.5%2280/4803
2-POINT53.9%1815/3364
3-POINT32.3%465/1439
FREE THROW85.2%1155/1356
EFFECTIVE FG%52.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.2%
AST / TO1.9
PTS PER 3621.54rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 161 | 32.01 | 19.68 | 4.74 | 3.64 | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.34 |
| Away | 161 | 32.14 | 18.71 | 5.03 | 3.61 | 1.51 | 1.04 | 0.35 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.1 | +1.0 | -0.3 | +0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3.62 | high |
| minutes | 28.8 | 33 | 36 | 32.07 | low |
| points | 13 | 19 | 25 | 19.19 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4.89 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES72.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS20.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ BOS | 26 | 10.71 | +142.7% | 20 | 7/18 | 5/11 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIN | 22 | 7.2 | +205.7% | 17 | 7/13 | 6/11 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +20.0 | 61% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ NOP | 20 | 4.09 | +389.5% | 11 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 0/1 | 3/4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.0 | 47% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ DAL | 17 | 4.08 | +316.2% | 18 | 8/12 | 8/9 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +18.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATL | 20 | — | — | 12 | 5/13 | 5/7 | 0/6 | 2/3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12.0 | 42% |
| 2026-02-11 | vs MIL | 21 | 3.45 | +509.5% | 5 | 1/7 | 0/2 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.0 | 32% |
| 2026-02-09 | vs MIL | 17 | 1.27 | +1237.8% | 14 | 6/10 | 4/6 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +7.0 | 70% |
| 2026-01-18 | @ MEM | 26 | 5.27 | +393% | 14 | 5/13 | 5/11 | 0/2 | 4/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -20.0 | 47% |
| 2026-01-15 | vs MEM | 27 | — | — | 18 | 6/16 | 3/12 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +5.0 | 51% |
| 2025-12-07 | @ NYK | 7 | — | — | 7 | 3/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | 88% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS57.6%19/33 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/33 games
5+ ASSISTS27.3%9/33 games
2+ THREES42.4%14/33 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 39 | 52.7 | #78 / 409 | 17.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 64 | 51.9 | #99 / 422 | 20.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 79 | 49.6 | #120 / 409 | 19.5M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ORL | 80 | 46.2 | #151 / 408 | 17.6M | Core |
| 2021–22 | ORL | 79 | 43.7 | #197 / 423 | 15.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER52.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#78of 409 ranked
PH$17.6MCore
SAMPLE39observed games
Ball security77
Box defence36
Creation46
Efficiency49
Rebounding35
Scoring78
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+4.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-30.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN17.7
SCORING SHARE17.4%
CREATION SHARE12.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR55.2%
+3.08 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 21 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.