Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Wendell Carter Jr.
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER47.12025–26
NBA RANK#144of 409
PH$18.3MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN34.4governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.4
PTS11.8
REB7.4
AST2.0
STL0.8
BLK0.6
3PM0.9
FG%51.1%
3P%32.0%
FT%79.3%
+/-+0.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL31minutes
EXPECTED25.28pregame reference
DEVIATION+22.6%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.4 PTS · 4.6 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.8 PTS · 7.6 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G10.3 PTS · 6.2 REB · 1.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G10.9 PTS · 6.6 REB · 1.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.1%1844/3605
2-POINT59.1%1500/2537
3-POINT32.2%344/1068
FREE THROW73.4%937/1277
EFFECTIVE FG%55.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.6%
AST / TO1.35
PTS PER 3615.57rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 207 | 27.63 | 12.02 | 8.24 | 1.96 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| Away | 205 | 28.15 | 12.1 | 8.25 | 2.09 | 0.9 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.02 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 28.6 | 33 | 27.89 | low |
| points | 7 | 12 | 17 | 12.06 | medium |
| rebounds | 5 | 8 | 11 | 8.25 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES11327.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ BOS | 31 | 25.28 | +22.6% | 3 | 0/5 | 0/3 | 0/2 | 3/4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4.0 | 22% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIN | 20 | 25.3 | -21% | 4 | 2/5 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 | 34% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs DET | 18 | 27.87 | -35.4% | 12 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 7/8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +26.0 | 80% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ NOP | 32 | 27.37 | +16.9% | 13 | 6/7 | 6/6 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -5.0 | 74% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ DAL | 36 | 27.36 | +31.6% | 28 | 8/16 | 6/13 | 2/3 | 10/10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +6.0 | 69% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATL | 25 | 28.15 | -11.2% | 14 | 6/9 | 6/7 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -16.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHX | 28 | 28.35 | -1.2% | 15 | 4/7 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 6/7 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +6.0 | 74% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ TOR | 26 | 25.43 | +2.2% | 4 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -23.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs SAC | 35 | 24.05 | +45.5% | 10 | 3/8 | 3/6 | 0/2 | 4/6 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ CLE | 29 | 23.67 | +22.5% | 15 | 4/7 | 2/2 | 2/5 | 5/6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -3.0 | 78% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS6.5%5/77 games
10+ REBOUNDS22.1%17/77 games
5+ ASSISTS2.6%2/77 games
2+ THREES26.0%20/77 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 77 | 29.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 51.1% | 32.0% | 79.3% |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 66 | 25.8 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 46.0% | 23.9% | 73.6% |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 55 | 25.6 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 52.5% | 37.4% | 69.4% |
| 2022–23 | ORL | 57 | 29.6 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 52.6% | 35.6% | 73.9% |
| 2021–22 | ORL | 62 | 29.9 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 52.5% | 32.7% | 69.1% |
| 2020–21 | CHIORL | 54 | 25.5 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 50.3% | 29.4% | 73.2% |
| 2019–20 | CHI | 41 | 29.2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 52.6% | 22.2% | 72.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 86 | 47.1 | #144 / 409 | 18.3M | Core |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 72 | 40.5 | #262 / 422 | 11M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 62 | 48.9 | #129 / 409 | 15.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ORL | 57 | 52.5 | #78 / 408 | 19M | Core |
| 2021–22 | ORL | 62 | 55.4 | #51 / 423 | 22.4M | Core |
| 2020–21 | ORL | 54 | 49.2 | #121 / 410 | 16.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | CHI | 41 | 44.6 | #157 / 385 | 12.9M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER47.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#144of 409 ranked
PH$18.3MCore
SAMPLE86observed games
Ball security48
Box defence35
Creation24
Efficiency69
Rebounding57
Scoring31
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-11.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+26.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+4.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY32-0.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN28.0
SCORING SHARE10.0%
CREATION SHARE7.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.8%
+2.52 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 76 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.