CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Jevon Carter

Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Orlando Magic · current teamGUSAWest Virginia

AF-PLAYER33.72025–26

NBA RANK#343of 409

PH$6.4MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN10.0governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES421

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS5.4

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS1.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS1.6

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

50 games

MIN16.0

PTS6.2

REB1.7

AST1.5

STL0.7

BLK0.2

3PM1.4

FG%39.5%

3P%34.8%

FT%80.0%

+/--1.9

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Orlando Magic

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Atlanta Hawks49.4% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves52.5% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-25 · AWAY@ New York Knicks25.5% winProjected 109–115

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Toronto Raptors39.8% winProjected 111–114

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Toronto Raptors39.8% winProjected 111–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL15minutes

EXPECTED19.11pregame reference

DEVIATION-21.5%role consistent

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G5 PTS · 2.2 REB · 1.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3.8 PTS · 2.4 REB · 1.8 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G4.7 PTS · 1.3 REB · 1.6 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.4 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1.9 AST

creation↓

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring↓

COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 421 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS40.3%837/2075

2-POINT44.8%329/735

3-POINT37.9%508/1340

FREE THROW79.5%97/122

EFFECTIVE FG%52.6%

TRUE SHOOTING%53.5%

AST / TO2.73

PTS PER 3612.67rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

210 HOME · 211 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	210	15.16	4.94	1.65	1.46	1.08	0.6	0.22
Away	211	15.6	5.88	1.68	1.66	1.33	0.6	0.25
Home − Away	—	-0.4	-0.9	-0.0	-0.2	-0.3	0.0	-0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

421 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	1	3	1.56	high
minutes	7	15	22	15.38	high
points	0	4	9	5.41	high
rebounds	0	1	3	1.66	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

421 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES30.7% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS20.5%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ BOS	15	19.11	-21.5%	3	1/3	0/0	1/3	0/0	0	2	2	0	1	0	1	0	-14.0	50%
2026-04-08	vs MIN	15	20.41	-26.5%	11	4/4	1/1	3/3	0/0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	+7.0	138%
2026-04-06	vs DET	19	19.82	-4.1%	0	0/3	0/1	0/2	0/0	1	3	4	3	3	1	1	2	-5.0	0%
2026-04-05	@ NOP	21	20.51	+2.4%	11	5/9	4/6	1/3	0/0	1	4	5	1	0	0	0	1	+2.0	61%
2026-04-03	@ DAL	20	20.5	-2.4%	5	2/4	1/2	1/2	0/0	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	1	+6.0	63%
2026-04-01	vs ATL	16	21.53	-25.7%	3	1/3	0/1	1/2	0/0	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	1	-6.0	50%
2026-03-31	vs PHX	22	21.25	+3.5%	0	0/6	0/1	0/5	0/0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	-12.0	0%
2026-03-29	@ TOR	25	20.31	+23.1%	7	3/8	2/3	1/5	0/0	0	1	1	3	2	0	2	3	-32.0	44%
2026-03-26	vs SAC	14	21.16	-33.8%	7	3/4	2/3	1/1	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	+6.0	88%
2026-03-24	@ CLE	27	19.78	+36.5%	15	6/12	3/3	3/9	0/0	0	4	4	4	1	0	0	0	-10.0	63%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/50 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/50 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/50 games

2+ THREES40.0%20/50 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	CHI ORL	50	16.0	6.2	1.7	1.5	39.5%	34.8%	80.0%
2024–25	CHI	34	8.7	4.3	1.0	1.1	38.7%	34.7%	80.0%
2023–24	CHI	72	13.9	5.0	0.8	1.3	37.8%	32.9%	57.1%
2022–23	MIL	81	22.3	8.0	2.5	2.4	42.3%	42.1%	81.6%
2021–22	MIL BKN	66	13.7	4.2	1.7	1.4	38.7%	38.8%	83.3%
2020–21	PHX	60	11.9	4.1	1.5	1.2	42.1%	37.1%	57.1%
2019–20	PHX	58	16.3	5.0	2.0	1.4	41.6%	42.5%	85.2%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	ORL	54	33.7	#343 / 409	6.4M	Depth
2023–24	CHI	74	28.2	#391 / 409	5.8M	Depth
2022–23	MIL	85	36.0	#302 / 408	8.7M	Depth
2021–22	MIL	90	32.2	#372 / 423	6.5M	Depth
2020–21	PHX	94	40.1	#265 / 410	7.9M	Depth
2019–20	PHX	73	39.3	#238 / 385	8.9M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#343 OF 409

AF-PLAYER33.7descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#343of 409 ranked

PH$6.4MDepth

SAMPLE54observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-0.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.2 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY21-0.2 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

CHI

Chicago Bulls

EXPECTED MIN4.8

SCORING SHARE4.4%

CREATION SHARE3.3%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR47.2%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.

ORL

Orlando Magic

EXPECTED MIN15.5

SCORING SHARE5.6%

CREATION SHARE7.4%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.9%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.