Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Anthony Black
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER40.72025–26
NBA RANK#234of 409
PH$12.7MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.9governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.1
PTS15.1
REB3.8
AST3.7
STL1.4
BLK0.7
3PM1.6
FG%44.9%
3P%33.3%
FT%73.2%
+/--0.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL19minutes
EXPECTED5.6pregame reference
DEVIATION+239.1%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 1.8 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G12 PTS · 3 REB · 2.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.4 PTS · 0.9 REB · 0.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G14.6 PTS · 3.2 REB · 3 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes↓
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.3%715/1614
2-POINT50.0%518/1036
3-POINT34.1%197/578
FREE THROW72.6%368/507
EFFECTIVE FG%50.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.3%
AST / TO1.73
PTS PER 3614.68rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 106 | 22.64 | 9.31 | 2.8 | 2.74 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.55 |
| Away | 100 | 24.94 | 10.08 | 3.07 | 2.69 | 0.96 | 1.05 | 0.52 |
| Home − Away | — | -2.3 | -0.8 | -0.3 | +0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.71 | high |
| minutes | 16 | 24 | 32 | 23.76 | medium |
| points | 3 | 8 | 17 | 9.68 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2.93 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES31.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ BOS | 19 | 5.6 | +239.1% | 13 | 5/9 | 4/5 | 1/4 | 2/3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -13.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIN | 16 | 3.06 | +423.5% | 7 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 5/6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +7.0 | 53% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs DET | 15 | — | — | 14 | 4/11 | 3/7 | 1/4 | 5/7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -14.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-07 | @ MIN | 2 | 24.55 | -91.9% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-05 | vs DAL | 24 | 26.64 | -9.9% | 8 | 3/12 | 3/9 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2.0 | 31% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs HOU | 23 | 31.56 | -27.1% | 8 | 3/12 | 1/6 | 2/6 | 0/1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -7.0 | 32% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ LAL | 30 | 32.37 | -7.3% | 8 | 4/13 | 4/11 | 0/2 | 0/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2.0 | 27% |
| 2026-02-22 | @ LAC | 36 | 32.35 | +11.3% | 11 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 1/4 | 2/4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8.0 | 51% |
| 2026-02-21 | @ PHX | 45 | 31.18 | +44.3% | 10 | 4/12 | 4/7 | 0/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +8.0 | 39% |
| 2026-02-19 | @ SAC | 31 | 31.58 | -1.8% | 20 | 8/13 | 4/7 | 4/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +26.0 | 77% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS30.2%19/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.6%1/63 games
5+ ASSISTS31.8%20/63 games
2+ THREES42.9%27/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 72 | 40.7 | #234 / 409 | 12.7M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 82 | 35.3 | #340 / 422 | 8.5M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 71 | 30.5 | #373 / 409 | 6.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER40.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#234of 409 ranked
PH$12.7MRotation
SAMPLE72observed games
Ball security53
Box defence52
Creation43
Efficiency36
Rebounding18
Scoring51
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-24.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+23.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+0.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY28+0.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN25.6
SCORING SHARE12.3%
CREATION SHARE13.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.