Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jonathan Isaac
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER32.62025–26
NBA RANK#353of 409
PH$5.8MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN12.7governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN10.5
PTS2.7
REB2.7
AST0.5
STL0.4
BLK0.6
3PM0.1
FG%42.2%
3P%18.4%
FT%60.3%
+/--0.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.59pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3.8 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0.1 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT6 G3.5 PTS · 2 REB · 0.5 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.9%503/1097
2-POINT54.7%377/689
3-POINT30.9%126/408
FREE THROW69.3%228/329
EFFECTIVE FG%51.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.8%
AST / TO1.11
PTS PER 3613.61rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 110 | 16.09 | 6.02 | 4.45 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 1.08 |
| Away | 111 | 16.45 | 6.29 | 4.34 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.93 | 1.25 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | -0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 15 | 22 | 16.28 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 10 | 6.15 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.39 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES73.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | vs WAS | 1 | 3.63 | -72.5% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs DET | 9 | 11.51 | -21.8% | 3 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5.0 | 80% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs HOU | 16 | 9.54 | +67.8% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ LAL | 15 | 8.14 | +84.3% | 3 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2.0 | 39% |
| 2026-02-22 | @ LAC | 15 | 6.71 | +123.6% | 5 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 | 51% |
| 2026-02-21 | @ PHX | 8 | 6.85 | +16.8% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 | 53% |
| 2026-02-19 | @ SAC | 13 | 6.22 | +109.2% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-09 | vs MIL | 4 | 9.7 | -58.8% | 2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 114% |
| 2026-02-07 | vs UTA | 3 | 11.4 | -73.7% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-05 | vs BKN | 8 | 11.06 | -27.7% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +10.0 | — |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/49 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/49 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/49 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/49 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 51 | 32.6 | #353 / 409 | 5.8M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 75 | 41.1 | #255 / 422 | 9.4M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 65 | 52.1 | #91 / 409 | 16.5M | Core |
| 2019–20 | ORL | 34 | 44.7 | #156 / 385 | 12.3M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER32.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#353of 409 ranked
PH$5.8MDepth
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security61
Box defence70
Creation14
Efficiency24
Rebounding60
Scoring12
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-9.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-25.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+2.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY44-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN7.7
SCORING SHARE2.2%
CREATION SHARE1.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.