CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Desmond Bane

Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Orlando Magic · current teamGUSATCU

AF-PLAYER49.12025–26

NBA RANK#124of 409

PH$20.3MCore · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN34.4governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES392

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS18.3

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS4.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS3.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

80 games

MIN33.8

PTS20.3

REB4.2

AST4.1

STL1.1

BLK0.5

3PM2.0

FG%48.3%

3P%38.8%

FT%90.5%

+/-+1.3

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Orlando Magic

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Atlanta Hawks49.4% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves52.5% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-25 · AWAY@ New York Knicks25.5% winProjected 109–115

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Toronto Raptors39.8% winProjected 111–114

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Toronto Raptors39.8% winProjected 111–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL18minutes

EXPECTED32.52pregame reference

DEVIATION-44.6%low minutes deviation

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G15.6 PTS · 3 REB · 2.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G22.2 PTS · 4.4 REB · 3.6 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G18 PTS · 3.3 REB · 3.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G20.6 PTS · 4.4 REB · 4.1 AST

creation→

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding↑

scoring↑

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 392 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS47.4%2614/5514

2-POINT52.6%1641/3117

3-POINT40.6%973/2397

FREE THROW88.9%980/1102

EFFECTIVE FG%56.2%

TRUE SHOOTING%59.9%

AST / TO2.04

PTS PER 3621.63rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

195 HOME · 197 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	195	30.36	17.84	4.37	4.01	2.46	0.99	0.33
Away	197	30.61	18.79	4.65	3.68	2.5	1.04	0.45
Home − Away	—	-0.3	-0.9	-0.3	+0.3	-0.0	-0.1	-0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

392 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	2	4	6	3.84	high
minutes	24.6	31.9	36	30.49	low
points	10	18	25	18.32	medium
rebounds	2	4	6	4.51	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

392 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES153.8% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.3% of games

10+ ASSISTS71.8%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ BOS	18	32.52	-44.6%	8	3/8	2/4	1/4	1/2	2	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	+9.0	45%
2026-04-08	vs MIN	30	31.84	-5.8%	18	7/13	6/9	1/4	3/3	1	3	4	6	1	0	4	3	+22.0	63%
2026-04-06	vs DET	32	32.42	-1.3%	25	9/17	5/10	4/7	3/5	0	3	3	1	2	3	1	4	+14.0	65%
2026-04-05	@ NOP	34	32.58	+4.3%	27	8/19	5/11	3/8	8/11	2	4	6	4	1	1	2	3	+8.0	57%
2026-04-03	@ DAL	33	32.57	+1.3%	27	8/13	5/8	3/5	8/9	0	7	7	5	3	0	1	3	+27.0	80%
2026-04-01	vs ATL	30	33.06	-9.2%	14	5/13	3/7	2/6	2/3	2	0	2	2	0	0	2	3	-15.0	49%
2026-03-31	vs PHX	37	33.18	+11.5%	21	6/16	4/10	2/6	7/8	1	5	6	5	1	1	5	4	+5.0	54%
2026-03-29	@ TOR	27	33.35	-19.1%	17	5/10	3/6	2/4	5/6	2	1	3	2	0	0	3	1	-25.0	67%
2026-03-26	vs SAC	35	33.08	+5.8%	23	6/11	3/5	3/6	8/8	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	1	+8.0	79%
2026-03-24	@ CLE	36	32.2	+11.8%	17	5/13	4/10	1/3	6/6	2	5	7	3	2	0	2	4	-5.0	54%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS51.2%41/80 games

10+ REBOUNDS1.3%1/80 games

5+ ASSISTS45.0%36/80 games

2+ THREES56.3%45/80 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	ORL	80	33.8	20.3	4.2	4.1	48.3%	38.8%	90.5%
2024–25	MEM	68	32.0	19.2	6.1	5.4	48.3%	39.0%	89.2%
2023–24	MEM	42	34.4	23.7	4.4	5.5	46.4%	38.1%	87.0%
2022–23	MEM	58	31.7	21.5	5.0	4.4	47.9%	40.8%	88.3%
2021–22	MEM	76	29.8	18.2	4.4	2.7	46.1%	43.6%	90.3%
2020–21	MEM	68	22.3	9.2	3.1	1.7	46.9%	43.2%	81.6%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	ORL	89	49.1	#124 / 409	20.3M	Core
2024–25	MEM	74	54.3	#71 / 422	22.8M	Core
2023–24	MEM	42	54.2	#72 / 409	18.8M	Core
2022–23	MEM	64	53.2	#70 / 408	20.7M	Core
2021–22	MEM	89	51.7	#91 / 423	22.3M	Core
2020–21	MEM	76	43.0	#203 / 410	13M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#124 OF 409

AF-PLAYER49.1descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#124of 409 ranked

PH$20.3MCore

SAMPLE89observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-6.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT-13.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGESTABLE+0.3 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY60-0.4 pp next-game What If impact

DECLINING

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

ORL

Orlando Magic

EXPECTED MIN33.3

SCORING SHARE17.5%

CREATION SHARE15.5%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.5%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.