Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Nikola Vucevic
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER51.02025–26
NBA RANK#96of 409
PH$19.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.5
PTS15.0
REB8.4
AST3.3
STL0.6
BLK0.7
3PM1.6
FG%49.2%
3P%36.7%
FT%81.4%
+/--1.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED13.3pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.6 PTS · 6.6 REB · 2.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G11.7 PTS · 7.3 REB · 2.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS49.3%3803/7716
2-POINT55.1%2990/5423
3-POINT35.5%813/2293
FREE THROW81.0%773/954
EFFECTIVE FG%54.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.5%
AST / TO2.12
PTS PER 3620.58rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 252 | 32.11 | 18.5 | 10.66 | 3.48 | 1.58 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| Away | 243 | 32.87 | 18.64 | 10.45 | 3.39 | 1.71 | 0.83 | 0.7 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.8 | -0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.44 | high |
| minutes | 29.6 | 33 | 36 | 32.48 | low |
| points | 13 | 19 | 24 | 18.57 | medium |
| rebounds | 7 | 11 | 13.2 | 10.56 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES29559.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES40.8% of games
10+ ASSISTS40.8%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 19 | 10.39 | +82.9% | 14 | 5/7 | 2/2 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +15.0 | 89% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYK | 24 | 6.52 | +268% | 10 | 4/7 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1.0 | 71% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 23 | 2.66 | +764% | 2 | 1/10 | 1/5 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1.0 | 10% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 13 | — | — | 4 | 2/5 | 2/3 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -14.0 | 40% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs DAL | 2 | 21.77 | -90.8% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | — |
| 2026-03-04 | vs CHA | 17 | 21.66 | -21.5% | 7 | 2/10 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9.0 | 32% |
| 2026-03-02 | @ MIL | 26 | 21.54 | +20.7% | 10 | 5/12 | 5/8 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +25.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs PHI | 21 | 21.88 | -4% | 11 | 4/9 | 1/3 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 61% |
| 2026-02-25 | @ DEN | 23 | 21.56 | +6.7% | 2 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9.0 | 14% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ PHX | 19 | 23.17 | -18% | 8 | 4/11 | 4/8 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -7.0 | 36% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS22.6%14/62 games
10+ REBOUNDS35.5%22/62 games
5+ ASSISTS30.6%19/62 games
2+ THREES45.2%28/62 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CHIBOS | 62 | 28.5 | 15.0 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 49.2% | 36.7% | 81.4% |
| 2024–25 | CHI | 71 | 31.3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 53.3% | 40.3% | 81.1% |
| 2023–24 | CHI | 76 | 34.4 | 18.0 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 48.4% | 29.4% | 82.2% |
| 2022–23 | CHI | 82 | 33.5 | 17.6 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 52.0% | 34.9% | 83.5% |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 72 | 33.1 | 17.6 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 47.4% | 31.5% | 75.6% |
| 2020–21 | CHIORL | 70 | 33.5 | 23.4 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 47.7% | 39.9% | 84.0% |
| 2019–20 | ORL | 62 | 32.2 | 19.6 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 47.7% | 33.9% | 78.4% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 69 | 51.0 | #96 / 409 | 19.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | CHI | 72 | 61.9 | #20 / 422 | 26.2M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | CHI | 78 | 48.3 | #139 / 409 | 18.6M | Core |
| 2022–23 | CHI | 84 | 53.0 | #71 / 408 | 23.6M | Core |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 77 | 50.1 | #105 / 423 | 21.1M | Core |
| 2020–21 | CHI | 70 | 60.6 | #27 / 410 | 26.6M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | ORL | 67 | 58.2 | #33 / 385 | 25.4M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER51.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#96of 409 ranked
PH$19.6MCore
SAMPLE69observed games
Ball security75
Box defence32
Creation51
Efficiency43
Rebounding63
Scoring55
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-18.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-27.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CHI
Chicago Bulls
EXPECTED MIN25.9
SCORING SHARE15.2%
CREATION SHARE12.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.3%
+2.17 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 43 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN13.6
SCORING SHARE8.2%
CREATION SHARE7.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR60.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.