Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jamal Cain
Orlando Magic current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER38.82025–26
NBA RANK#275of 409
PH$7.4MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN21.7governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Atlanta Hawks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN13.0
PTS5.6
REB2.0
AST0.8
STL0.3
BLK0.1
3PM0.7
FG%46.4%
3P%37.7%
FT%86.7%
+/-+1.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Orlando Magic
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL16minutes
EXPECTED20.45pregame reference
DEVIATION-21.8%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.2 PTS · 2.2 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8.2 PTS · 3.2 REB · 1.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6.9 PTS · 2.5 REB · 1.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT8 G6.25 PTS · 2.12 REB · 1 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.2%204/442
2-POINT55.4%134/242
3-POINT35.0%70/200
FREE THROW77.1%108/140
EFFECTIVE FG%54.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.2%
AST / TO1.34
PTS PER 3614.5rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 49 | 12.96 | 5.31 | 2.39 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| Away | 63 | 13.02 | 5.17 | 2.02 | 0.6 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.13 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.63 | high |
| minutes | 4 | 11 | 21 | 12.99 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 9.8 | 5.23 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2.18 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ BOS | 16 | 20.45 | -21.8% | 2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.0 | 53% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIN | 16 | 19.43 | -17.7% | 8 | 3/8 | 2/5 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 47% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs DET | 11 | 20.8 | -47.1% | 3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | 80% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ NOP | 28 | 20.8 | +34.6% | 8 | 3/7 | 3/4 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ DAL | 21 | 20.79 | +1% | 8 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +7.0 | 93% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATL | 27 | 20.03 | +34.8% | 17 | 5/9 | 3/3 | 2/6 | 5/5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -19.0 | 76% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHX | 20 | 19.66 | +1.8% | 12 | 4/5 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.0 | 102% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ TOR | 8 | 20.69 | -61.3% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -32.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs SAC | 22 | 18.55 | +18.6% | 11 | 5/6 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 | 92% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ CLE | 32 | 15.21 | +110.3% | 17 | 5/11 | 4/8 | 1/3 | 6/6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 | 62% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/35 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/35 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/35 games
2+ THREES17.1%6/35 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 47 | 38.8 | #275 / 409 | 7.4M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 36 | 37.3 | #308 / 422 | 6.7M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER38.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#275of 409 ranked
PH$7.4MDepth
SAMPLE47observed games
Ball security59
Box defence19
Creation19
Efficiency56
Rebounding34
Scoring34
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-11.2 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+5.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+8.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY35+0.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN7.1
SCORING SHARE3.7%
CREATION SHARE2.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR53.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.