CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

David Roddy

Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Denver Nuggets · current teamF

AF-PLAYER40.42024–25

NBA RANK#265of 422

PH$7.4MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22 WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES170

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS6.2

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS3.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS1.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

3 games

MIN15.0

PTS5.7

REB5.7

AST1.3

STL0.7

BLK0.0

3PM0.0

FG%37.5%

3P%0.0%

FT%100.0%

+/--1.3

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Denver Nuggets

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-22 · AWAY@ Oklahoma City Thunder33.0% winProjected 112–117

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs New Orleans Pelicans67.3% winProjected 113–118

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors63.1% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ New Orleans Pelicans53.9% winProjected 115–115

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns44.6% winProjected 114–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL33minutes

EXPECTED—pregame reference

DEVIATION—expected minutes unavailable

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G3 PTS · 2.6 REB · 0.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G1.5 PTS · 1.3 REB · 0.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST

creation—

efficiency—

minutes—

rebounding—

scoring—

Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 170 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS42.1%408/970

2-POINT52.2%276/529

3-POINT29.9%132/441

FREE THROW68.9%113/164

EFFECTIVE FG%48.9%

TRUE SHOOTING%50.9%

AST / TO1.31

PTS PER 3613.2rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

81 HOME · 89 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	81	16.01	5.89	3.02	0.98	0.77	0.33	0.23
Away	89	17.93	6.56	2.92	1.11	0.79	0.52	0.22
Home − Away	—	-1.9	-0.7	+0.1	-0.1	-0.0	-0.2	+0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

170 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	1	2	1.05	high
minutes	7	17.5	26	17.02	high
points	0	5.5	11	6.24	high
rebounds	1	3	5	2.97	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

170 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.6% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

3 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ SAS	33	—	—	15	6/13	6/12	0/1	3/3	7	6	13	2	1	3	+7.0	52%
2026-03-11	vs HOU	6	3.03	+97.9%	2	0/1	0/0	0/1	2/2	1	3	4	1	0	1	+2.0	53%
2026-03-06	vs NYK	6	—	—	0	0/2	0/0	0/2	0/0	0	0	0	1	1	1	-13.0	0%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/3 games

10+ REBOUNDS33.3%1/3 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/3 games

2+ THREES0.0%0/3 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	DEN	3	15.0	5.7	5.7	1.3	37.5%	0.0%	100.0%
2024–25	PHI HOU ATL	33	12.4	4.6	2.5	1.1	45.6%	31.1%	76.9%
2023–24	PHX MEM	64	18.4	6.6	3.3	1.3	40.3%	29.3%	69.1%
2022–23	MEM	70	18.0	6.7	2.8	0.8	42.9%	30.7%	63.1%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2024–25	HOU	33	40.4	#265 / 422	7.4M	Depth
2023–24	PHX	67	26.2	#398 / 409	6M	Depth
2022–23	MEM	76	26.4	#395 / 408	6M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2024–25

#265 OF 422

AF-PLAYER40.4descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#265of 422 ranked

PH$7.4MDepth

SAMPLE33observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

EXPECTED MIN3.4

SCORING SHARE2.0%

CREATION SHARE3.5%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR33.9%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.