Final audited reference season.
Houston RocketsWEST · SOUTHWEST
Houston Rockets
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
playoff direct
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
49.6% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 59.2
Houston Rockets finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 59.2, ranked #12 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring57.8
Defense68.6
Possession62.8
Creation26.8
Discipline69.5
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 567.8
GAME 1067.2
GAME 2070.0
GAME 4159.7
GAME 6058.2
FINAL59.2
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2049.8#17/30
2020–2126.6#29/30
2021–2224.0#29/30
2022–2324.7#29/30
2023–2448.4#19/30
2024–2557.0#12/30
2025–2659.2#12/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Amen Thompson1 governed next-game sample90dependency-1.4 pp if OUTAlperen Sengun1 governed next-game sample88dependency-1.2 pp if OUTClint Capela1 governed next-game sample61dependency-1.2 pp if OUTJae'Sean Tate1 governed next-game sample44dependency-1.0 pp if OUTJabari Smith Jr.1 governed next-game sample42dependency-0.8 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · creation
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Davion MitchellMIA · creation92Cam SpencerMEM · creation91T.J. McConnellIND · creation89Andrew NembhardIND · creation89Tre JonesCHI · creation88PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERAmen Thompson
EXPECTED MIN35.9
SCORING SHARE15.7%
CREATION SHARE21.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERKevin Durant
EXPECTED MIN33.7
SCORING SHARE22.7%
CREATION SHARE18.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.6%
WITH/WITHOUT-0.34 residual pts
PLAYERJabari Smith Jr.
EXPECTED MIN33.5
SCORING SHARE13.7%
CREATION SHARE7.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.5%
WITH/WITHOUT+2.43 residual pts
PLAYERAlperen Sengun
EXPECTED MIN29.9
SCORING SHARE17.7%
CREATION SHARE24.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.9%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.49 residual pts
PLAYERReed Sheppard
EXPECTED MIN25.4
SCORING SHARE11.5%
CREATION SHARE12.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.4%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERTari Eason
EXPECTED MIN20.0
SCORING SHARE9.2%
CREATION SHARE6.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.3%
WITH/WITHOUT+4.81 residual pts
PLAYERJosh Okogie
EXPECTED MIN16.6
SCORING SHARE4.2%
CREATION SHARE3.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.7%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERSteven Adams
EXPECTED MIN16.1
SCORING SHARE5.0%
CREATION SHARE6.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.