Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Aaron Holiday
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER32.12025–26
NBA RANK#362of 409
PH$6MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN8.3governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN13.6
PTS5.6
REB1.0
AST1.1
STL0.4
BLK0.1
3PM1.2
FG%41.8%
3P%39.6%
FT%87.2%
+/-+2.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED14.36pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G5 PTS · 1.2 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.4 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.9 PTS · 1.3 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT8 G7.38 PTS · 1.38 REB · 0.62 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.2%1040/2466
2-POINT45.0%594/1320
3-POINT38.9%446/1146
FREE THROW85.5%349/408
EFFECTIVE FG%51.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.3%
AST / TO2.26
PTS PER 3614.02rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 219 | 16.09 | 6.37 | 1.59 | 1.83 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.14 |
| Away | 229 | 16.86 | 6.46 | 1.48 | 2.02 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.18 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.8 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | +0.0 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.93 | high |
| minutes | 9 | 16 | 24 | 16.48 | high |
| points | 2 | 5 | 11 | 6.42 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.54 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES40.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS51.1%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 6 | 17.11 | -64.9% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | — |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 14 | 16.78 | -16.6% | 7 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ PHX | 21 | 14.76 | +42.3% | 12 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +27.0 | 87% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ GSW | 22 | 13.88 | +58.5% | 6 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 18 | 13.86 | +29.9% | 6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +8.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 13 | 13.84 | -6.1% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYK | 6 | 15.08 | -60.2% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ NOP | 25 | 13.14 | +90.3% | 9 | 3/8 | 0/1 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +41.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ MEM | 15 | 11.03 | +36% | 6 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 12 | 9.71 | +23.5% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS1.8%1/54 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/54 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/54 games
2+ THREES31.5%17/54 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 54 | 13.6 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 41.8% | 39.6% | 87.2% |
| 2024–25 | HOU | 60 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 43.3% | 39.8% | 82.0% |
| 2023–24 | HOU | 78 | 16.3 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 44.6% | 38.7% | 92.1% |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 63 | 13.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 41.8% | 40.9% | 84.4% |
| 2021–22 | PHXWAS | 62 | 16.2 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 44.8% | 37.9% | 86.8% |
| 2020–21 | IND | 66 | 17.8 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 39.0% | 36.8% | 81.9% |
| 2019–20 | IND | 65 | 24.4 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 41.0% | 39.4% | 84.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 60 | 32.1 | #362 / 409 | 6M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | HOU | 63 | 41.2 | #251 / 422 | 8.8M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | HOU | 78 | 39.3 | #266 / 409 | 9.2M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 64 | 30.1 | #373 / 408 | 5.8M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | PHX | 85 | 42.1 | #228 / 423 | 10.4M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | IND | 70 | 30.9 | #359 / 410 | 6.7M | Depth |
| 2019–20 | IND | 75 | 36.0 | #283 / 385 | 9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER32.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#362of 409 ranked
PH$6MDepth
SAMPLE60observed games
Ball security53
Box defence25
Creation27
Efficiency41
Rebounding9
Scoring34
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-1.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-29.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY39-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN9.2
SCORING SHARE4.1%
CREATION SHARE3.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR64.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.