Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Marcus Smart
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER32.52025–26
NBA RANK#357of 409
PH$8MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN24.9governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.5
PTS9.4
REB2.8
AST2.9
STL1.4
BLK0.4
3PM1.6
FG%40.0%
3P%33.6%
FT%82.1%
+/-+4.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED4.99pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.2 PTS · 1 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.8 PTS · 2.2 REB · 2.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.6 PTS · 0.5 REB · 0.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.8 PTS · 2.4 REB · 2.7 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS40.4%1388/3439
2-POINT48.9%742/1517
3-POINT33.6%646/1922
FREE THROW79.4%676/851
EFFECTIVE FG%49.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%53.7%
AST / TO2.45
PTS PER 3613.85rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 167 | 30.5 | 11.83 | 3.26 | 5.2 | 1.81 | 1.7 | 0.41 |
| Away | 182 | 30.53 | 11.66 | 3.24 | 4.68 | 1.88 | 1.44 | 0.34 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.0 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.5 | -0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4.93 | high |
| minutes | 25.2 | 31 | 36 | 30.52 | low |
| points | 6 | 11 | 17 | 11.74 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.25 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES144.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS195.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHX | 18 | 2.14 | +742.8% | 6 | 2/5 | 2/3 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +5.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 31 | 26.72 | +16% | 2 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1.0 | 26% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ MIA | 28 | 26.93 | +4% | 13 | 2/6 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 8/9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +15.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ HOU | 34 | 26.17 | +29.9% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ HOU | 36 | 25.07 | +43.6% | 11 | 4/9 | 1/2 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +6.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs DEN | 35 | 24.67 | +41.9% | 21 | 8/15 | 3/3 | 5/12 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +16.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs MIN | 31 | 28.23 | +9.8% | 8 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-08 | vs NYK | 29 | 28.17 | +3% | 5 | 1/10 | 1/5 | 0/5 | 3/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +27.0 | 21% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs IND | 29 | 27.48 | +5.5% | 11 | 4/6 | 1/2 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +8.0 | 92% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ DEN | 32 | 26.21 | +22.1% | 9 | 3/9 | 0/3 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +3.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS5.0%3/60 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/60 games
5+ ASSISTS21.7%13/60 games
2+ THREES40.0%24/60 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 60 | 28.5 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 40.0% | 33.6% | 82.1% |
| 2024–25 | MEMWAS | 30 | 20.5 | 9.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 40.3% | 35.6% | 76.6% |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 20 | 30.1 | 14.4 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 43.0% | 31.3% | 76.8% |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 61 | 32.1 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 41.5% | 33.6% | 74.6% |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 71 | 32.3 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 41.8% | 33.1% | 79.3% |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 48 | 32.9 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 39.8% | 33.0% | 79.0% |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 59 | 31.9 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 37.6% | 34.7% | 83.9% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 70 | 32.5 | #357 / 409 | 8M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 30 | 43.4 | #213 / 422 | 9.5M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 20 | 42.0 | #217 / 409 | 9.4M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 81 | 40.1 | #244 / 408 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 91 | 41.7 | #235 / 423 | 14.2M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 55 | 43.9 | #193 / 410 | 13.9M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 76 | 39.5 | #233 / 385 | 13M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER32.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#357of 409 ranked
PH$8MDepth
SAMPLE70observed games
Ball security33
Box defence50
Creation41
Efficiency36
Rebounding12
Scoring24
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-38.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-36.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-4.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY23-0.7 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN22.3
SCORING SHARE8.3%
CREATION SHARE11.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.5%
+5.57 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 37 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.