CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Fred VanVleet

Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Houston Rockets · current teamGUSAWichita State

AF-PLAYER41.22024–25

NBA RANK#249of 422

PH$12.5MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN29.0governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES371

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS18.1

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS4.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS6.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2024–25

58 games

MIN35.1

PTS14.4

REB3.6

AST5.5

STL1.5

BLK0.4

3PM2.7

FG%38.3%

3P%35.0%

FT%81.2%

+/-+4.4

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Houston Rockets

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Dallas Mavericks71.9% winProjected 110–116

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ San Antonio Spurs37.6% winProjected 110–115

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ Atlanta Hawks45.0% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Atlanta Hawks59.6% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Milwaukee Bucks58.9% winProjected 113–113

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2024–25

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL27minutes

EXPECTED18.05pregame reference

DEVIATION+49.6%expanded minutes

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G6.2 PTS · 0.2 REB · 2.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8 PTS · 1.8 REB · 6 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G7.6 PTS · 1.2 REB · 3.7 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G10.1 PTS · 3 REB · 5.4 AST

creation→

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring↓

COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 371 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS40.0%2244/5615

2-POINT44.0%1090/2479

3-POINT36.8%1154/3136

FREE THROW86.8%1090/1256

EFFECTIVE FG%50.2%

TRUE SHOOTING%54.6%

AST / TO3.44

PTS PER 3617.9rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

188 HOME · 183 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	188	35.51	17.78	3.94	6.67	3.03	1.6	0.46
Away	183	37.52	18.52	4.03	6.95	3.2	1.67	0.67
Home − Away	—	-2.0	-0.7	-0.1	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

371 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	4	7	9	6.81	medium
minutes	33	37.3	40.1	36.5	low
points	11	18	25	18.15	medium
rebounds	2	4	6	3.99	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

371 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES5815.6% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.5% of games

10+ ASSISTS6517.5%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2024–25

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2025-04-13	vs DEN	27	18.05	+49.6%	15	5/13	2/5	3/8	2/3	0	0	0	3	1	0	3	2	-20.0	52%
2025-04-06	@ GSW	36	29.35	+22.7%	3	1/8	0/3	1/5	0/2	0	1	1	3	3	1	2	2	+8.0	17%
2025-04-04	vs OKC	37	29.13	+27%	13	5/9	2/2	3/7	0/0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	3	+6.0	72%
2025-03-31	@ LAL	40	33.48	+19.5%	7	2/14	1/7	1/7	2/3	0	4	4	9	0	0	1	3	-3.0	23%
2025-03-30	@ PHX	28	33.84	-17.3%	13	5/9	2/3	3/6	0/0	0	2	2	7	2	0	1	0	+23.0	72%
2025-03-27	@ UTA	34	32.85	+3.5%	4	1/10	0/3	1/7	1/1	1	0	1	6	1	1	2	0	+11.0	19%
2025-03-25	vs ATL	39	29.84	+30.7%	21	5/14	2/6	3/8	8/8	1	3	4	3	0	0	1	3	+13.0	60%
2025-03-23	vs DEN	42	26.48	+58.6%	7	2/12	1/4	1/8	2/2	0	3	3	5	0	0	1	2	-2.0	27%
2025-03-21	@ MIA	36	22	+63.6%	37	13/17	4/6	9/11	2/4	0	0	0	3	3	0	1	3	+2.0	99%
2025-03-19	@ ORL	36	16.33	+120.4%	19	4/15	1/6	3/9	8/8	0	6	6	3	1	0	1	3	-1.0	51%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2024–25

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS24.1%14/58 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/58 games

5+ ASSISTS67.2%39/58 games

2+ THREES69.0%40/58 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2024–25	HOU	58	35.1	14.4	3.6	5.5	38.3%	35.0%	81.2%
2023–24	HOU	73	36.8	17.4	3.8	8.1	41.5%	38.7%	86.0%
2022–23	TOR	69	36.7	19.4	4.1	7.2	39.3%	34.2%	89.8%
2021–22	TOR	65	37.9	20.3	4.5	6.7	40.3%	37.7%	87.4%
2020–21	TOR	52	36.5	19.6	4.2	6.3	38.9%	36.5%	88.5%
2019–20	TOR	54	35.7	17.6	3.8	6.6	41.3%	39.0%	84.9%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2024–25	HOU	65	41.2	#249 / 422	12.5M	Rotation
2023–24	HOU	73	51.2	#100 / 409	21.2M	Core
2022–23	TOR	70	48.7	#115 / 408	19.8M	Core
2021–22	TOR	69	49.9	#106 / 423	21.2M	Core
2020–21	TOR	54	50.3	#108 / 410	19.1M	Core
2019–20	TOR	65	49.2	#103 / 385	20.6M	Core

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2024–25

#249 OF 422

AF-PLAYER41.2descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#249of 422 ranked

PH$12.5MRotation

SAMPLE65observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2024–25

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

HOU

Houston Rockets

EXPECTED MIN26.9

SCORING SHARE12.5%

CREATION SHARE23.8%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.4%

+0.07 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 41 normal-load / 6 nonparticipation games.