Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER35.42025–26
NBA RANK#321of 409
PH$6.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN20.9
PTS8.1
REB2.7
AST2.3
STL0.5
BLK0.1
3PM1.6
FG%39.9%
3P%35.5%
FT%80.0%
+/--1.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL21minutes
EXPECTED2.06pregame reference
DEVIATION+919.5%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G3.4 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT3 G3.67 PTS · 1.67 REB · 2.67 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.7 PTS · 0.3 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT3 G3.67 PTS · 1.67 REB · 2.67 AST
creation—
efficiency—
minutes—
rebounding—
scoring—
Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.7%1950/4458
2-POINT51.5%954/1853
3-POINT38.2%996/2605
FREE THROW85.0%516/607
EFFECTIVE FG%54.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.3%
AST / TO2.25
PTS PER 3618.44rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 179 | 28.13 | 14.7 | 3.19 | 3.15 | 2.76 | 1.01 | 0.28 |
| Away | 195 | 28.35 | 14.26 | 3.55 | 2.92 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 0.26 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.2 | +0.4 | -0.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.03 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 28 | 34 | 28.25 | low |
| points | 8 | 14 | 20 | 14.47 | medium |
| rebounds | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.38 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES41.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS20.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs GSW | 21 | 2.06 | +919.5% | 17 | 6/9 | 1/1 | 5/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +13.0 | 94% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ SAC | 3 | 1.55 | +93.1% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ NOP | 27 | 0.85 | +3079% | 16 | 6/9 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 81% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs MIN | 17 | 0.58 | +2839% | 8 | 2/7 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 3/4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -5.0 | 46% |
| 2026-02-04 | vs CLE | 12 | — | — | 2 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -16.0 | 25% |
| 2025-12-26 | @ POR | 2 | — | — | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| 2025-12-23 | vs HOU | 19 | — | — | 3 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7.0 | 25% |
| 2025-12-20 | vs LAL | 18 | — | — | 2 | 1/6 | 1/2 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6.0 | 17% |
| 2025-12-18 | @ OKC | 24 | — | — | 14 | 6/12 | 4/6 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +1.0 | 58% |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MEM | 19 | — | — | 7 | 2/6 | 0/2 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -23.0 | 51% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.8%1/21 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/21 games
5+ ASSISTS14.3%3/21 games
2+ THREES47.6%10/21 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAC | 21 | 20.9 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 39.9% | 35.5% | 80.0% |
| 2024–25 | LACATL | 53 | 25.0 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 42.5% | 36.2% | 87.9% |
| 2023–24 | ATL | 79 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 42.8% | 37.4% | 92.1% |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 54 | 27.9 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 44.7% | 40.6% | 83.1% |
| 2021–22 | ATL | 62 | 29.4 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 43.0% | 36.2% | 84.4% |
| 2020–21 | ATL | 44 | 29.7 | 16.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 47.3% | 43.8% | 90.9% |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 61 | 28.9 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 44.0% | 37.2% | 74.1% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAC | 21 | 35.4 | #321 / 409 | 6.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | LAC | 60 | 35.4 | #339 / 422 | 7.5M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | ATL | 80 | 45.4 | #166 / 409 | 16.4M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 61 | 46.1 | #156 / 408 | 14.5M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | ATL | 67 | 46.9 | #146 / 423 | 16.8M | Core |
| 2020–21 | ATL | 62 | 47.6 | #140 / 410 | 17.2M | Core |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 61 | 45.4 | #146 / 385 | 15.7M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER35.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#321of 409 ranked
PH$6.2MDepth
SAMPLE21observed games
Ball security42
Box defence26
Creation44
Efficiency36
Rebounding24
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+1.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-20.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAC
LA Clippers
EXPECTED MIN7.4
SCORING SHARE6.6%
CREATION SHARE10.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR38.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.