Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jabari Smith Jr.
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.02025–26
NBA RANK#272of 409
PH$12.1MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN35.2
PTS15.7
REB6.8
AST1.9
STL0.7
BLK0.9
3PM2.3
FG%44.9%
3P%36.2%
FT%77.3%
+/-+3.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED36.91pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G15.6 PTS · 5.2 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18 PTS · 6.6 REB · 1.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G16.4 PTS · 6.4 REB · 1.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G16.5 PTS · 6.8 REB · 2.2 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.5%1404/3224
2-POINT51.6%880/1704
3-POINT34.5%524/1520
FREE THROW79.7%572/718
EFFECTIVE FG%51.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.1%
AST / TO1.2
PTS PER 3615.28rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 143 | 31.97 | 14.08 | 7.36 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 0.55 | 0.87 |
| Away | 143 | 32.35 | 13.22 | 7.29 | 1.46 | 1.68 | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.47 | high |
| minutes | 27 | 32 | 37 | 32.16 | low |
| points | 9 | 14 | 18 | 13.65 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7.32 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES5318.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 40 | 35.85 | +11.6% | 16 | 5/12 | 3/6 | 2/6 | 4/6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -4.0 | 55% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 34 | 36.34 | -6.4% | 19 | 7/15 | 6/8 | 1/7 | 4/6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +8.0 | 54% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ PHX | 39 | 37 | +5.4% | 20 | 6/18 | 1/5 | 5/13 | 3/3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +11.0 | 52% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ GSW | 32 | 37.42 | -14.5% | 23 | 9/12 | 4/5 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +15.0 | 96% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 24 | 37.37 | -35.8% | 18 | 6/16 | 2/8 | 4/8 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 | 53% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 33 | 37.32 | -11.6% | 12 | 5/15 | 3/7 | 2/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +11.0 | 40% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYK | 39 | 37.03 | +5.3% | 15 | 5/10 | 2/4 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +14.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ NOP | 33 | 37.37 | -11.7% | 20 | 7/15 | 3/6 | 4/9 | 2/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +16.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ MEM | 37 | 37.29 | -0.8% | 21 | 7/16 | 5/9 | 2/7 | 5/8 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +8.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 48 | 35.3 | +36% | 16 | 7/15 | 5/9 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3.0 | 53% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS21.1%16/76 games
10+ REBOUNDS18.4%14/76 games
5+ ASSISTS2.6%2/76 games
2+ THREES69.7%53/76 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 82 | 39.0 | #272 / 409 | 12.1M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | HOU | 62 | 37.1 | #312 / 422 | 8.9M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | HOU | 76 | 42.1 | #214 / 409 | 13.8M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | HOU | 79 | 31.3 | #362 / 408 | 8.1M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#272of 409 ranked
PH$12.1MRotation
SAMPLE82observed games
Ball security81
Box defence30
Creation16
Efficiency44
Rebounding36
Scoring42
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-30.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+7.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY42-0.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN33.5
SCORING SHARE13.7%
CREATION SHARE7.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.5%
+2.43 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 68 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.