Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Clint Capela
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER38.12025–26
NBA RANK#285of 409
PH$7.8MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN1.4governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN12.2
PTS3.5
REB4.4
AST0.7
STL0.5
BLK0.8
3PM0.0
FG%50.2%
3P%—
FT%57.4%
+/-+1.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED9.17pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.4 PTS · 1.6 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G1.8 PTS · 2.4 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.9 PTS · 3.8 REB · 0.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G2.2 PTS · 3.7 REB · 1 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS59.6%2037/3418
2-POINT59.7%2037/3414
3-POINT—0/4
FREE THROW56.3%562/998
EFFECTIVE FG%59.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.1%
AST / TO1.13
PTS PER 3615.42rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 219 | 24.4 | 10.56 | 10.21 | 0.95 | 0 | 0.66 | 1.42 |
| Away | 220 | 24.89 | 10.56 | 10.6 | 1.08 | 0 | 0.64 | 1.25 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.0 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.02 | high |
| minutes | 19 | 26 | 30.8 | 24.65 | medium |
| points | 5.6 | 10 | 15 | 10.56 | high |
| rebounds | 6 | 10 | 14 | 10.4 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES19344.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.2% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS10.2%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 8 | 10.39 | -23% | 4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.0 | 69% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 12 | 10.42 | +15.2% | 1 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 17% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ PHX | 10 | 10.87 | -8% | 2 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2.0 | 20% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ GSW | 4 | 11.52 | -65.3% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 13 | 11.51 | +13% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +15.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 8 | 11.49 | -30.4% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYK | 12 | 10.45 | +14.8% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ NOP | 16 | 10.1 | +58.4% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +6.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ MEM | 15 | 8.6 | +74.5% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +9.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 10 | 11.18 | -10.6% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/72 games
10+ REBOUNDS6.9%5/72 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/72 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/72 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 72 | 12.2 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 50.2% | — | 57.4% |
| 2024–25 | ATL | 55 | 21.5 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 55.9% | 0.0% | 53.6% |
| 2023–24 | ATL | 73 | 25.8 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 63.1% |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 65 | 26.6 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 0.9 | 65.3% | 0.0% | 60.3% |
| 2021–22 | ATL | 73 | 27.6 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 61.0% | 0.0% | 47.3% |
| 2020–21 | ATL | 63 | 30.1 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 0.8 | 59.4% | — | 57.3% |
| 2019–20 | HOU | 38 | 32.6 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 62.7% | — | 52.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 76 | 38.1 | #285 / 409 | 7.8M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | ATL | 55 | 49.5 | #129 / 422 | 14.8M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | ATL | 74 | 54.6 | #68 / 409 | 20.6M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 72 | 59.6 | #27 / 408 | 23.2M | Core |
| 2021–22 | ATL | 76 | 58.3 | #33 / 423 | 24.6M | Core |
| 2020–21 | ATL | 81 | 56.6 | #43 / 410 | 25.7M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | HOU | 38 | 55.9 | #49 / 385 | 19.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER38.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#285of 409 ranked
PH$7.8MDepth
SAMPLE76observed games
Ball security49
Box defence73
Creation14
Efficiency28
Rebounding93
Scoring14
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+27.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-39.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-10.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY61-1.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN10.7
SCORING SHARE3.1%
CREATION SHARE2.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.