Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Tari Eason
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER34.92025–26
NBA RANK#332of 409
PH$8.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN25.6governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.9
PTS10.3
REB6.2
AST1.5
STL1.3
BLK0.5
3PM1.6
FG%41.2%
3P%36.4%
FT%75.4%
+/-+2.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED25.15pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G5.8 PTS · 4 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.6 PTS · 4.4 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9.8 PTS · 5.2 REB · 0.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G8.3 PTS · 5.7 REB · 0.6 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.1%872/1933
2-POINT50.1%643/1284
3-POINT35.3%229/649
FREE THROW74.3%252/339
EFFECTIVE FG%51.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%53.4%
AST / TO1.07
PTS PER 3615.69rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 111 | 23.54 | 10.43 | 6.37 | 1.21 | 1.12 | 1.37 | 0.7 |
| Away | 106 | 23.5 | 10.07 | 6.12 | 1.39 | 0.99 | 1.35 | 0.59 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | -0.2 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.29 | high |
| minutes | 19 | 23 | 29 | 23.52 | low |
| points | 5.2 | 10 | 15 | 10.25 | high |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 8 | 6.25 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES2210.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 24 | 24.93 | -3.7% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 27 | 25.35 | +6.5% | 15 | 5/10 | 2/4 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4.0 | 69% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ PHX | 31 | 23.85 | +30% | 12 | 5/7 | 5/5 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +29.0 | 76% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ GSW | 19 | 23.2 | -18.1% | 2 | 1/9 | 1/5 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 11% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 22 | 23.17 | -5% | 16 | 7/10 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +17.0 | 80% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 24 | 23.13 | +3.7% | 5 | 1/8 | 0/1 | 1/7 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9.0 | 28% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYK | 30 | 21.61 | +38.8% | 17 | 6/10 | 3/4 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +21.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ NOP | 22 | 22.32 | -1.4% | 15 | 6/12 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +15.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ MEM | 29 | 22.37 | +29.6% | 16 | 6/14 | 5/8 | 1/6 | 3/4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +11.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 21 | 24.38 | -13.9% | 3 | 1/7 | 0/5 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3.0 | 21% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS5.3%3/57 games
10+ REBOUNDS12.3%7/57 games
5+ ASSISTS3.5%2/57 games
2+ THREES45.6%26/57 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 63 | 34.9 | #332 / 409 | 8.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | HOU | 63 | 47.9 | #155 / 422 | 14.6M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | HOU | 22 | 46.9 | #150 / 409 | 11.5M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | HOU | 82 | 39.8 | #251 / 408 | 10.3M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER34.9descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#332of 409 ranked
PH$8.2MDepth
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security59
Box defence54
Creation16
Efficiency24
Rebounding55
Scoring36
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-33.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-44.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-0.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY39-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN20.0
SCORING SHARE9.2%
CREATION SHARE6.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.4%
+4.81 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 29 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.