Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Kevin Durant
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER58.42025–26
NBA RANK#30of 409
PH$27MHigh Value · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN36.5
PTS25.9
REB5.4
AST4.8
STL0.8
BLK0.9
3PM2.4
FG%51.8%
3P%41.3%
FT%87.2%
+/-+4.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED36.78pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G23.4 PTS · 5.2 REB · 4.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G28.4 PTS · 6.2 REB · 5.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G23.3 PTS · 5.2 REB · 6.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G26.3 PTS · 5.5 REB · 7 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS52.8%3407/6448
2-POINT57.7%2612/4525
3-POINT41.3%795/1923
FREE THROW87.9%1946/2214
EFFECTIVE FG%59.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%64.4%
AST / TO1.58
PTS PER 3627.16rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 180 | 35.93 | 27.21 | 6.28 | 5.27 | 2.23 | 0.86 | 1.11 |
| Away | 169 | 36.68 | 27.56 | 6.56 | 4.95 | 2.33 | 0.79 | 1.2 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5.11 | high |
| minutes | 33 | 37 | 39.4 | 36.29 | low |
| points | 21 | 27 | 33 | 27.38 | low |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6.42 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES6017.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES61.7% of games
10+ ASSISTS205.7%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 39 | 35.2 | +10.8% | 33 | 13/18 | 13/17 | 0/1 | 7/9 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 38 | 34.79 | +9.2% | 29 | 10/18 | 7/12 | 3/6 | 6/8 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +17.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ PHX | 36 | 35.22 | +2.2% | 24 | 8/20 | 3/11 | 5/9 | 3/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ GSW | 37 | 35.65 | +3.8% | 31 | 10/17 | 7/11 | 3/6 | 8/9 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4.0 | 74% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 30 | 35.61 | -15.8% | 25 | 8/12 | 6/8 | 2/4 | 7/8 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +24.0 | 81% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 39 | 35.56 | +9.7% | 19 | 7/16 | 5/10 | 2/6 | 3/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +6.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYK | 35 | 35.47 | -1.3% | 27 | 10/18 | 6/11 | 4/7 | 3/4 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +28.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ NOP | 29 | 35.76 | -18.9% | 20 | 7/16 | 6/9 | 1/7 | 5/5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ MEM | 35 | 36.07 | -3% | 25 | 8/14 | 5/7 | 3/7 | 6/7 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +8.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 43 | 35.76 | +20.3% | 30 | 9/22 | 7/17 | 2/5 | 10/12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5.0 | 55% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS81.6%62/76 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.3%4/76 games
5+ ASSISTS50.0%38/76 games
2+ THREES73.7%56/76 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 77 | 58.4 | #30 / 409 | 27M | High Value |
| 2024–25 | PHX | 62 | 60.9 | #27 / 422 | 25.8M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | PHX | 79 | 60.1 | #26 / 409 | 27.3M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | PHX | 58 | 63.8 | #10 / 408 | 25.5M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | BKN | 60 | 63.1 | #11 / 423 | 26.9M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | BKN | 46 | 67.1 | #5 / 410 | 25M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER58.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#30of 409 ranked
PH$27MHigh Value
SAMPLE77observed games
Ball security60
Box defence30
Creation44
Efficiency74
Rebounding19
Scoring90
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-0.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-36.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN33.7
SCORING SHARE22.7%
CREATION SHARE18.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.6%
-0.34 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 62 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.