Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Reed Sheppard
Houston Rockets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER43.02025–26
NBA RANK#206of 409
PH$14.3MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN24.9governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Dallas Mavericks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.1
PTS13.4
REB2.9
AST3.3
STL1.4
BLK0.7
3PM2.8
FG%43.1%
3P%39.8%
FT%81.7%
+/-+3.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Houston Rockets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED23.69pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G8.2 PTS · 1.6 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14 PTS · 3.4 REB · 3.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G12.1 PTS · 2.6 REB · 2.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G12.9 PTS · 3.6 REB · 3.6 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS41.4%471/1137
2-POINT45.9%205/447
3-POINT38.6%266/690
FREE THROW81.6%80/98
EFFECTIVE FG%53.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.6%
AST / TO2.16
PTS PER 3617.1rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 62 | 20.52 | 10.15 | 2.34 | 2.58 | 2.26 | 1.18 | 0.47 |
| Away | 69 | 20.86 | 9.55 | 2.3 | 2.54 | 1.83 | 1.07 | 0.57 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.3 | +0.6 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.56 | high |
| minutes | 11 | 21 | 29 | 20.69 | medium |
| points | 3 | 9 | 15 | 9.83 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.32 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.8%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 18 | 24.33 | -26% | 12 | 5/12 | 3/6 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -17.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 19 | 25.72 | -26.1% | 6 | 2/7 | 0/2 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 43% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ PHX | 21 | 26.61 | -21.1% | 12 | 5/9 | 3/3 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ GSW | 26 | 28.02 | -7.2% | 11 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +10.0 | 65% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 29 | 27.99 | +3.6% | 12 | 4/10 | 0/2 | 4/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +27.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 37 | 27.95 | +32.4% | 27 | 9/15 | 0/1 | 9/14 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17.0 | 90% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYK | 28 | 29.01 | -3.5% | 20 | 8/12 | 4/5 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +10.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ NOP | 21 | 29.63 | -29.1% | 6 | 2/6 | 0/1 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ MEM | 28 | 29.77 | -5.9% | 15 | 6/15 | 3/8 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 28 | 30.92 | -9.5% | 10 | 3/13 | 1/3 | 2/10 | 2/2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +5.0 | 36% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS15.2%12/79 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/79 games
5+ ASSISTS22.8%18/79 games
2+ THREES72.2%57/79 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 85 | 43.0 | #206 / 409 | 14.3M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | HOU | 55 | 29.5 | #393 / 422 | 5.6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER43.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#206of 409 ranked
PH$14.3MRotation
SAMPLE85observed games
Ball security65
Box defence59
Creation52
Efficiency36
Rebounding9
Scoring55
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-1.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+42.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-1.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY29-0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN25.4
SCORING SHARE11.5%
CREATION SHARE12.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.