CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Tyus Jones

Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Denver Nuggets · current teamGUSADuke

AF-PLAYER28.22025–26

NBA RANK#390of 409

PH$5.8MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN12.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES498

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS8.4

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS2.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS4.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

63 games

MIN14.6

PTS2.9

REB1.1

AST2.4

STL0.6

BLK0.1

3PM0.6

FG%35.0%

3P%28.0%

FT%77.8%

+/--1.7

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Denver Nuggets

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-22 · AWAY@ Oklahoma City Thunder33.0% winProjected 112–117

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs New Orleans Pelicans67.3% winProjected 113–118

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors63.1% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ New Orleans Pelicans53.9% winProjected 115–115

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns44.6% winProjected 114–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL21minutes

EXPECTED1.89pregame reference

DEVIATION+1011.7%expanded minutes

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G1 PTS · 1 REB · 0.8 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G2.4 PTS · 1 REB · 1.2 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G0.5 PTS · 0.5 REB · 0.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G3.5 PTS · 1.7 REB · 2.3 AST

creation↓

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring↓

COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 498 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS44.8%1637/3653

2-POINT49.9%1037/2077

3-POINT38.1%600/1576

FREE THROW82.1%308/375

EFFECTIVE FG%53.0%

TRUE SHOOTING%54.8%

AST / TO5.82

PTS PER 3613.72rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

247 HOME · 251 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	247	21.65	8.47	2.22	4.68	1.25	0.87	0.11
Away	251	22.4	8.32	2.05	4.74	1.16	0.94	0.08
Home − Away	—	-0.8	+0.1	+0.2	-0.1	+0.1	-0.1	+0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

498 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	2	4	7	4.71	high
minutes	15	21	30.3	22.03	medium
points	3	8	13	8.4	high
rebounds	1	2	3	2.14	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

498 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES285.6% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.4% of games

10+ ASSISTS367.2%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	TOV	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ SAS	21	1.89	+1011.7%	5	2/7	1/3	1/4	0/0	2	3	5	4	0	1	+6.0	36%
2026-04-04	vs SAS	2	3.4	-41.2%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	+4.0	—
2026-03-29	vs GSW	2	3.06	-34.7%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2.0	—
2026-03-20	vs TOR	3	4.44	-32.5%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3.0	—
2026-03-17	vs PHI	10	4.58	+118.1%	5	2/4	1/1	1/3	0/0	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2.0	63%
2026-03-12	@ SAS	3	—	—	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-11.0	—
2026-03-11	vs HOU	8	—	—	2	1/2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3.0	41%
2026-03-06	vs NYK	12	—	—	3	1/4	0/1	1/3	0/0	0	1	1	1	0	2	-14.0	38%
2026-03-05	vs LAL	6	—	—	0	0/2	0/1	0/1	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	1	+4.0	0%
2026-02-26	vs SAC	12	—	—	1	0/2	0/0	0/2	1/2	0	2	2	4	0	0	-1.0	17%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/63 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/63 games

5+ ASSISTS14.3%9/63 games

2+ THREES9.5%6/63 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	ORL DEN DAL	63	14.6	2.9	1.1	2.4	35.0%	28.0%	77.8%
2024–25	PHX	81	26.8	10.2	2.4	5.3	44.8%	41.4%	89.5%
2023–24	WAS	66	29.3	12.0	2.7	7.3	48.9%	41.6%	80.0%
2022–23	MEM	80	24.2	10.3	2.5	5.2	43.8%	37.1%	80.0%
2021–22	MEM	73	21.2	8.7	2.4	4.4	45.1%	39.0%	81.8%
2020–21	MEM	70	17.5	6.3	2.0	3.7	43.1%	32.1%	91.1%
2019–20	MEM	65	18.9	7.5	1.6	4.4	45.9%	37.9%	74.1%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	DEN	66	28.2	#390 / 409	5.8M	Depth
2024–25	PHX	81	47.7	#160 / 422	16.6M	Core
2023–24	WAS	66	49.6	#121 / 409	17.3M	Core
2022–23	MEM	86	44.8	#178 / 408	14.2M	Rotation
2021–22	MEM	85	48.0	#128 / 423	17.3M	Core
2020–21	MEM	79	42.5	#215 / 410	11.1M	Rotation
2019–20	MEM	65	44.9	#152 / 385	13.3M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#390 OF 409

AF-PLAYER28.2descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#390of 409 ranked

PH$5.8MDepth

SAMPLE66observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-16.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT-57.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGESTABLE-2.4 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY15-0.2 pp next-game What If impact

DECLINING

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

ORL

Orlando Magic

EXPECTED MIN14.0

SCORING SHARE2.5%

CREATION SHARE9.1%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.6%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

EXPECTED MIN4.4

SCORING SHARE1.3%

CREATION SHARE2.6%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR58.4%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

EXPECTED MIN9.4

SCORING SHARE3.4%

CREATION SHARE16.6%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR62.0%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.