Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Peyton Watson
Cleveland Cavaliers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER43.92025–26
NBA RANK#195of 409
PH$13.1MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN23.3governed role
NEXT GAME@ Philadelphia 76ers2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.3
PTS14.7
REB4.9
AST2.1
STL1.0
BLK1.2
3PM1.5
FG%48.6%
3P%41.7%
FT%72.9%
+/-+3.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Cleveland Cavaliers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED3.5pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G22.8 PTS · 4.8 REB · 2.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.7 PTS · 1.1 REB · 0.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G21.3 PTS · 5 REB · 2.6 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes↑
rebounding↓
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.7%710/1488
2-POINT53.3%533/999
3-POINT36.2%177/489
FREE THROW69.6%309/444
EFFECTIVE FG%53.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.6%
AST / TO1.38
PTS PER 3614.07rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 107 | 22.35 | 8.8 | 3.57 | 1.43 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 1.34 |
| Away | 115 | 21.62 | 8.38 | 3.46 | 1.24 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 0.96 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.33 | high |
| minutes | 15 | 22 | 30.8 | 21.97 | medium |
| points | 3 | 7 | 13 | 8.59 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.51 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES20.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | vs GSW | 22 | — | — | 10 | 3/11 | 1/6 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +11.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs UTA | 21 | — | — | 7 | 2/10 | 1/8 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2.0 | 31% |
| 2026-02-04 | @ NYK | 33 | 34.32 | -3.9% | 10 | 4/13 | 3/7 | 1/6 | 1/2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 36% |
| 2026-02-03 | @ DET | 38 | 29.56 | +28.6% | 17 | 4/11 | 4/10 | 0/1 | 9/11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +9.0 | 54% |
| 2026-02-01 | vs OKC | 37 | 29.9 | +23.7% | 29 | 11/17 | 6/10 | 5/7 | 2/4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -9.0 | 77% |
| 2026-01-30 | vs LAC | 35 | 30.37 | +15.3% | 21 | 9/17 | 7/12 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +22.0 | 59% |
| 2026-01-29 | vs BKN | 34 | 29.69 | +14.5% | 19 | 7/15 | 5/12 | 2/3 | 3/6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2026-01-27 | vs DET | 37 | 29.51 | +25.4% | 13 | 6/20 | 5/14 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -12.0 | 33% |
| 2026-01-22 | @ WAS | 40 | 34.29 | +16.6% | 35 | 10/16 | 4/8 | 6/8 | 9/10 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +13.0 | 86% |
| 2026-01-20 | vs LAL | 38 | 34.46 | +10.3% | 18 | 7/17 | 3/9 | 4/8 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6.0 | 53% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS29.4%15/51 games
10+ REBOUNDS7.8%4/51 games
5+ ASSISTS7.8%4/51 games
2+ THREES35.3%18/51 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DEN | 51 | 43.9 | #195 / 409 | 13.1M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | DEN | 82 | 36.1 | #328 / 422 | 8.6M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | DEN | 90 | 33.3 | #352 / 409 | 7.1M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER43.9descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#195of 409 ranked
PH$13.1MRotation
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security54
Box defence50
Creation20
Efficiency56
Rebounding28
Scoring49
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+4.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+30.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-7.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY43-0.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DEN
Denver Nuggets
EXPECTED MIN21.9
SCORING SHARE13.1%
CREATION SHARE7.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.1%
-1.43 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 31 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.