CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Christian Braun

Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Denver Nuggets · current teamG

AF-PLAYER42.12025–26

NBA RANK#216of 409

PH$11.8MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN28.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22 WHAT IF IMPACT+0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES275

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS9.6

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS3.9

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS1.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

39 games

MIN32.0

PTS11.6

REB4.8

AST2.6

STL0.7

BLK0.3

3PM1.0

FG%50.1%

3P%30.3%

FT%77.3%

+/-+5.7

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Denver Nuggets

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-22 · AWAY@ Oklahoma City Thunder33.0% winProjected 112–117

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs New Orleans Pelicans67.3% winProjected 113–118

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors63.1% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ New Orleans Pelicans53.9% winProjected 115–115

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns44.6% winProjected 114–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED33.96pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G5.8 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13 PTS · 4.8 REB · 1.6 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G6.1 PTS · 2.2 REB · 0.6 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.3 PTS · 5.2 REB · 2.1 AST

creation↓

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 275 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS52.3%1014/1938

2-POINT59.7%788/1321

3-POINT36.6%226/617

FREE THROW75.6%378/500

EFFECTIVE FG%58.1%

TRUE SHOOTING%61.0%

AST / TO2.4

PTS PER 3614.02rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

138 HOME · 137 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	138	24.22	9.64	3.84	1.78	0.86	0.65	0.33
Away	137	24.93	9.5	4.04	1.85	0.79	0.79	0.41
Home − Away	—	-0.7	+0.1	-0.2	-0.1	+0.1	-0.1	-0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

275 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	2	3	1.81	high
minutes	16	25	34	24.57	medium
points	3	9	15	9.57	high
rebounds	2	4	6	3.94	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

275 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES82.9% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-06	vs POR	40	34.08	+17.4%	8	4/7	4/4	0/3	0/0	1	5	6	1	3	0	0	2	+10.0	57%
2026-04-04	vs SAS	39	33.01	+18.2%	21	7/16	2/5	5/11	2/2	2	6	8	4	0	1	0	2	+10.0	62%
2026-03-29	vs GSW	33	32.87	+0.4%	12	5/8	5/5	0/3	2/2	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	+17.0	68%
2026-03-27	vs UTA	22	32.75	-32.8%	7	3/8	2/5	1/3	0/0	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	-9.0	44%
2026-03-24	@ PHX	32	33.28	-3.8%	13	6/10	5/7	1/3	0/0	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	3	+1.0	65%
2026-03-20	vs TOR	33	32.56	+1.3%	11	5/9	4/6	1/3	0/0	2	2	4	2	0	0	1	4	-8.0	61%
2026-03-18	@ MEM	41	32.2	+27.3%	26	11/19	9/14	2/5	2/2	2	5	7	5	4	0	1	5	-5.0	65%
2026-03-17	vs PHI	27	32.64	-17.3%	22	7/9	5/6	2/3	6/6	0	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	+21.0	95%
2026-03-14	@ LAL	33	33.98	-2.9%	12	5/9	5/7	0/2	2/2	0	1	1	3	1	0	1	3	-6.0	61%
2026-03-12	@ SAS	38	32.57	+16.7%	11	3/11	1/4	2/7	3/4	0	9	9	2	1	0	1	3	+22.0	43%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS17.9%7/39 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/39 games

5+ ASSISTS12.8%5/39 games

2+ THREES28.2%11/39 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	DEN	39	32.0	11.6	4.8	2.6	50.1%	30.3%	77.3%
2024–25	DEN	79	33.9	15.4	5.2	2.6	58.0%	39.6%	82.7%
2023–24	DEN	82	20.2	7.3	3.7	1.6	46.0%	38.4%	69.4%
2022–23	DEN	75	15.7	4.8	2.4	0.8	49.5%	35.4%	62.5%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	DEN	45	42.1	#216 / 409	11.8M	Rotation
2024–25	DEN	93	54.3	#69 / 422	24.4M	Core
2023–24	DEN	94	38.4	#282 / 409	9.6M	Depth
2022–23	DEN	95	33.9	#331 / 408	7.3M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#216 OF 409

AF-PLAYER42.1descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#216of 409 ranked

PH$11.8MRotation

SAMPLE45observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-13.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT-36.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-3.9 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY42+0.4 pp next-game What If impact

DECLINING

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

EXPECTED MIN21.7

SCORING SHARE9.1%

CREATION SHARE9.1%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR63.2%

-1.22 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 28 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.