Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.02025–26
NBA RANK#178of 409
PH$15.5MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN26.9governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.0
PTS13.8
REB2.6
AST1.4
STL0.6
BLK0.1
3PM2.9
FG%44.6%
3P%40.7%
FT%81.5%
+/-+2.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Miami Heat
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED24.12pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.6 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.6 PTS · 2.4 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6.8 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G14.5 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1.5 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.0%2336/5562
2-POINT48.7%1022/2098
3-POINT37.9%1314/3464
FREE THROW81.5%914/1122
EFFECTIVE FG%53.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.0%
AST / TO2.19
PTS PER 3618.09rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 240 | 28.5 | 14.18 | 2.86 | 1.66 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.11 |
| Away | 243 | 28.36 | 14.39 | 3.33 | 1.84 | 2.74 | 0.56 | 0.13 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.75 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 28 | 34 | 28.43 | low |
| points | 8 | 14 | 20 | 14.29 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | vs POR | 23 | 25.15 | -8.5% | 3 | 1/7 | 0/2 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -24.0 | 21% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SAS | 26 | 24.69 | +5.3% | 10 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs GSW | 26 | 24.77 | +5% | 16 | 5/10 | 1/2 | 4/8 | 2/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12.0 | 74% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs UTA | 28 | 24.68 | +13.5% | 21 | 5/12 | 0/0 | 5/12 | 6/7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +25.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ PHX | 23 | 24.36 | -5.6% | 18 | 6/12 | 2/4 | 4/8 | 2/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs TOR | 28 | 23.69 | +18.2% | 23 | 8/16 | 1/6 | 7/10 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +12.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ MEM | 28 | 24.37 | +14.9% | 11 | 3/12 | 1/1 | 2/11 | 3/3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 41% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs PHI | 19 | 24.87 | -23.6% | 9 | 3/11 | 1/4 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ LAL | 29 | 24.67 | +17.5% | 20 | 6/13 | 2/3 | 4/10 | 4/4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ SAS | 19 | 26.05 | -27.1% | 1 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0/3 | 1/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4.0 | 10% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS21.6%16/74 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/74 games
5+ ASSISTS1.4%1/74 games
2+ THREES73.0%54/74 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DEN | 74 | 27.0 | 13.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 44.6% | 40.7% | 81.5% |
| 2024–25 | DET | 76 | 28.2 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 40.7% | 36.9% | 85.5% |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 79 | 26.9 | 14.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 40.2% | 35.3% | 85.2% |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 71 | 30.3 | 14.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 40.1% | 38.6% | 77.0% |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 42 | 29.6 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 39.4% | 33.6% | 75.7% |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 70 | 28.4 | 16.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 44.7% | 39.1% | 81.6% |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 71 | 29.4 | 15.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 43.4% | 39.8% | 81.9% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DEN | 80 | 45.0 | #178 / 409 | 15.5M | Core |
| 2024–25 | DET | 82 | 33.4 | #358 / 422 | 8.5M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 93 | 36.4 | #316 / 409 | 9.4M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 71 | 37.3 | #292 / 408 | 9.7M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 42 | 39.9 | #265 / 423 | 9.6M | Depth |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 77 | 44.5 | #183 / 410 | 15.8M | Core |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 77 | 43.3 | #180 / 385 | 15.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#178of 409 ranked
PH$15.5MCore
SAMPLE80observed games
Ball security93
Box defence13
Creation26
Efficiency67
Rebounding8
Scoring50
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-0.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+41.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+0.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY35+0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DEN
Denver Nuggets
EXPECTED MIN25.6
SCORING SHARE11.2%
CREATION SHARE4.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.8%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.