Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Ryan Rollins
Milwaukee Bucks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER48.02025–26
NBA RANK#132of 409
PH$18.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Washington Wizards2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN32.1
PTS16.9
REB4.6
AST5.6
STL1.5
BLK0.4
3PM2.5
FG%46.4%
3P%40.4%
FT%79.3%
+/--2.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Milwaukee Bucks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED25.85pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G23 PTS · 4.2 REB · 5.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.2 PTS · 0.1 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G17.3 PTS · 4.8 REB · 6.2 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.8%571/1219
2-POINT51.7%356/688
3-POINT40.5%215/531
FREE THROW79.8%166/208
EFFECTIVE FG%55.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.1%
AST / TO1.96
PTS PER 3617.99rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 70 | 21.89 | 11.24 | 2.93 | 3.46 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 0.29 |
| Away | 75 | 20.2 | 9.81 | 3.08 | 3.33 | 1.39 | 1.03 | 0.4 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.7 | +1.4 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3.39 | high |
| minutes | 6 | 23 | 34 | 21.01 | high |
| points | 2 | 10 | 17 | 10.5 | high |
| rebounds | 0.8 | 3 | 5 | 3.01 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES74.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS53.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs SAS | 25 | 32.39 | -22.8% | 12 | 5/15 | 5/8 | 0/7 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -18.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ POR | 31 | 33.83 | -8.4% | 36 | 13/26 | 7/14 | 6/12 | 4/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -6.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ PHX | 33 | 32.17 | +2.6% | 26 | 10/19 | 7/12 | 3/7 | 3/6 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +6.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs CLE | 34 | 32.88 | +3.4% | 19 | 6/13 | 3/6 | 3/7 | 4/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ ATL | 31 | 33.52 | -7.5% | 22 | 8/11 | 4/4 | 4/7 | 2/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -13.0 | 93% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ MIA | 33 | 32.55 | +1.4% | 16 | 6/9 | 4/5 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +9.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs PHX | 41 | 31.5 | +30.2% | 14 | 4/8 | 2/2 | 2/6 | 4/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-08 | vs ORL | 23 | 31.88 | -27.8% | 15 | 5/12 | 2/5 | 3/7 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -14.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs UTA | 40 | 29.95 | +33.6% | 13 | 5/15 | 2/6 | 3/9 | 0/0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +11.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-04 | vs ATL | 35 | 30.12 | +16.2% | 13 | 4/11 | 2/4 | 2/7 | 3/4 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -22.0 | 51% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS34.8%23/66 games
10+ REBOUNDS3.0%2/66 games
5+ ASSISTS62.1%41/66 games
2+ THREES69.7%46/66 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIL | 66 | 48.0 | #132 / 409 | 18.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 58 | 46.2 | #175 / 422 | 11.6M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER48.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#132of 409 ranked
PH$18.1MCore
SAMPLE66observed games
Ball security40
Box defence45
Creation65
Efficiency47
Rebounding21
Scoring59
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+9.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-32.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
EXPECTED MIN30.7
SCORING SHARE14.8%
CREATION SHARE21.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.9%
-6.06 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 51 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.