Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Pete Nance
Milwaukee Bucks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.22025–26
NBA RANK#190of 409
PH$9.8MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN39.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Washington Wizards2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN14.9
PTS5.4
REB2.5
AST0.8
STL0.3
BLK0.3
3PM1.1
FG%55.2%
3P%45.1%
FT%16.7%
+/--0.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Milwaukee Bucks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED28.35pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT3 G5.33 PTS · 2.33 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.3 PTS · 1.1 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT3 G5.33 PTS · 2.33 REB · 1 AST
creation—
efficiency—
minutes—
rebounding—
scoring—
Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.5%87/169
2-POINT66.1%41/62
3-POINT43.0%46/107
FREE THROW20.0%2/10
EFFECTIVE FG%65.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%64.0%
AST / TO1.52
PTS PER 3611.91rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 28 | 12.25 | 3.5 | 1.86 | 0.61 | 0.79 | 0.32 | 0.11 |
| Away | 28 | 11.71 | 4.43 | 2.07 | 0.64 | 0.86 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.62 | high |
| minutes | 3 | 8.5 | 22 | 11.98 | high |
| points | 0 | 2.5 | 6 | 3.96 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.96 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | @ HOU | 40 | 27.69 | +44.5% | 23 | 9/13 | 4/4 | 5/9 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4.0 | 89% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs LAC | 39 | 23.86 | +63.4% | 5 | 2/9 | 1/3 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -10.0 | 28% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs SAS | 30 | 19.7 | +52.3% | 5 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -22.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ POR | 31 | 16.3 | +90.2% | 6 | 2/6 | 1/1 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -19.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ PHX | 27 | 14.71 | +83.5% | 5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs CLE | 30 | 11.64 | +157.6% | 13 | 5/6 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 0/2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7.0 | 95% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ ATL | 15 | 11 | +36.3% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs PHX | 12 | 12.31 | -2.5% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-08 | vs ORL | 22 | 10.37 | +112.1% | 6 | 3/5 | 3/3 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs UTA | 14 | 8.25 | +69.6% | 5 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS2.7%1/37 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/37 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/37 games
2+ THREES24.3%9/37 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#190of 409 ranked
PH$9.8MDepth
SAMPLE37observed games
Ball security53
Box defence25
Creation21
Efficiency76
Rebounding31
Scoring27
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-33.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+24.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY64-0.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
EXPECTED MIN7.4
SCORING SHARE4.6%
CREATION SHARE1.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR57.9%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.