Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Bobby Portis
Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER48.72025–26
NBA RANK#128of 409
PH$16.4MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN24.0
PTS13.4
REB6.3
AST1.6
STL0.6
BLK0.2
3PM2.0
FG%49.0%
3P%46.1%
FT%71.2%
+/--3.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Miami Heat
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED6.59pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.8 PTS · 3.2 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G12 PTS · 3.2 REB · 0.7 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.8%2442/5009
2-POINT52.8%1789/3387
3-POINT40.3%653/1622
FREE THROW76.9%500/650
EFFECTIVE FG%55.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.0%
AST / TO1.31
PTS PER 3619.3rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 234 | 24.07 | 13.47 | 7.68 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| Away | 230 | 24.48 | 12.54 | 7.49 | 1.43 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 0.35 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +0.9 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.3 | -0.0 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.42 | high |
| minutes | 19 | 23.9 | 30 | 24.27 | low |
| points | 7 | 12 | 18 | 13.01 | medium |
| rebounds | 5 | 7 | 10.4 | 7.59 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES11625.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | vs CLE | 33 | 20.02 | +64.8% | 19 | 8/19 | 5/12 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ ATL | 27 | 19.5 | +38.5% | 14 | 5/15 | 2/8 | 3/7 | 1/2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -16.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ MIA | 26 | 18.92 | +37.5% | 19 | 8/14 | 6/10 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +8.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-08 | vs ORL | 28 | 21.44 | +30.6% | 18 | 7/11 | 3/6 | 4/5 | 0/1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7.0 | 79% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs UTA | 18 | 21.75 | -17.2% | 12 | 5/8 | 5/6 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-04 | vs ATL | 24 | 21.51 | +11.6% | 13 | 4/8 | 1/2 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-02 | vs BOS | 23 | 20.02 | +14.9% | 12 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -21.0 | 76% |
| 2026-03-01 | @ CHI | 24 | 19.54 | +22.8% | 18 | 7/14 | 4/6 | 3/8 | 1/1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 | 62% |
| 2026-02-27 | vs NYK | 17 | 21.65 | -21.5% | 14 | 5/8 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -10.0 | 75% |
| 2026-02-25 | vs CLE | 21 | 21.48 | -2.2% | 10 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4.0 | 63% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS11.3%7/62 games
10+ REBOUNDS19.4%12/62 games
5+ ASSISTS4.8%3/62 games
2+ THREES66.1%41/62 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIL | 62 | 24.0 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 49.0% | 46.1% | 71.2% |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 49 | 25.4 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 46.6% | 36.5% | 83.6% |
| 2023–24 | MIL | 82 | 24.5 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 50.8% | 40.6% | 79.0% |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 70 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 49.6% | 37.0% | 76.8% |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 70 | 28.1 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 47.6% | 39.7% | 75.9% |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 66 | 20.8 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 52.3% | 47.1% | 74.0% |
| 2019–20 | NYK | 65 | 21.0 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 44.4% | 34.4% | 76.1% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIL | 62 | 48.7 | #128 / 409 | 16.4M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 55 | 46.1 | #176 / 422 | 13.2M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | MIL | 88 | 48.9 | #127 / 409 | 18M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 75 | 48.9 | #110 / 408 | 17.6M | Core |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 82 | 47.9 | #130 / 423 | 18.6M | Core |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 89 | 54.4 | #64 / 410 | 21.4M | Core |
| 2019–20 | NYK | 65 | 38.5 | #248 / 385 | 9.5M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER48.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#128of 409 ranked
PH$16.4MCore
SAMPLE62observed games
Ball security82
Box defence25
Creation23
Efficiency53
Rebounding54
Scoring61
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+10.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-24.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
EXPECTED MIN22.0
SCORING SHARE11.8%
CREATION SHARE6.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.5%
-3.80 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 32 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.