Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Nikola Jovic
Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER33.22025–26
NBA RANK#348of 409
PH$6.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN37.1governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+1.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN17.4
PTS7.3
REB3.3
AST2.2
STL0.6
BLK0.4
3PM0.9
FG%36.4%
3P%26.8%
FT%67.0%
+/--0.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Miami Heat
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL13minutes
EXPECTED—pregame reference
DEVIATION—expected minutes unavailable
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1 PTS · 0 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5.8 PTS · 3.8 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.5 PTS · 0.1 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.3 PTS · 4.1 REB · 1.9 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.5%434/1021
2-POINT52.8%241/456
3-POINT34.2%193/565
FREE THROW75.2%188/250
EFFECTIVE FG%52.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.2%
AST / TO1.87
PTS PER 3614.85rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 65 | 19.94 | 8.06 | 3.43 | 2.26 | 1.25 | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| Away | 85 | 20.38 | 8.53 | 3.82 | 2.11 | 1.32 | 0.6 | 0.28 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.17 | high |
| minutes | 13 | 21 | 28 | 20.19 | medium |
| points | 3 | 7 | 13.2 | 8.33 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3.65 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | vs WAS | 13 | — | — | 5 | 2/6 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ HOU | 4 | — | — | 0 | 0/3 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-20 | @ ATL | 3 | 11.66 | -74.3% | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | 57% |
| 2026-02-11 | @ NOP | 18 | 9.47 | +90.1% | 8 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10.0 | 82% |
| 2026-02-09 | vs UTA | 17 | 9.22 | +84.4% | 0 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-08 | @ WAS | 6 | 11.07 | -45.8% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2026-02-06 | @ BOS | 6 | 12.64 | -52.5% | 0 | 0/5 | 0/1 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-03 | vs ATL | 8 | 14.11 | -43.3% | 5 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | 64% |
| 2026-01-31 | vs CHI | 15 | 17.63 | -14.9% | 2 | 1/6 | 1/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4.0 | 17% |
| 2026-01-29 | @ CHI | 17 | 18.21 | -6.6% | 8 | 4/9 | 4/6 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12.0 | 44% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS9.1%4/44 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/44 games
5+ ASSISTS11.4%5/44 games
2+ THREES25.0%11/44 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 45 | 33.2 | #348 / 409 | 6.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MIA | 50 | 44.6 | #198 / 422 | 11.8M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | MIA | 53 | 43.1 | #200 / 409 | 11.2M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER33.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#348of 409 ranked
PH$6.2MDepth
SAMPLE45observed games
Ball security40
Box defence39
Creation43
Efficiency18
Rebounding34
Scoring44
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-67.2 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-38.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+20.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY50+1.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN11.8
SCORING SHARE5.7%
CREATION SHARE7.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR62.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.