CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Miami Heat · current teamGUSABaylor

AF-PLAYER44.12025–26

NBA RANK#192of 409

PH$14.3MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT+0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES363

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS7.9

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS1.9

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS3.9

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

66 games

MIN29.0

PTS9.7

REB2.7

AST6.7

STL1.0

BLK0.2

3PM1.3

FG%49.2%

3P%39.8%

FT%65.1%

+/-+2.7

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Miami Heat

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves56.4% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Detroit Pistons50.9% winProjected 113–114

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ Charlotte Hornets38.9% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Dallas Mavericks66.8% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Atlanta Hawks38.8% winProjected 114–116

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL26minutes

EXPECTED32.19pregame reference

DEVIATION-19.2%role consistent

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G9.6 PTS · 2 REB · 4.8 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G12 PTS · 3.2 REB · 6.2 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G10.3 PTS · 2.5 REB · 5.1 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.5 PTS · 3 REB · 5.2 AST

creation↓

efficiency↑

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring↑

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 363 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS45.2%1143/2528

2-POINT52.7%754/1431

3-POINT35.5%389/1097

FREE THROW68.7%206/300

EFFECTIVE FG%52.9%

TRUE SHOOTING%54.1%

AST / TO3.16

PTS PER 3612.25rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

182 HOME · 181 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	182	23.44	7.9	1.99	3.7	1.09	0.71	0.15
Away	181	23.21	7.98	1.89	4.09	1.06	0.66	0.23
Home − Away	—	+0.2	-0.1	+0.1	-0.4	+0.0	+0.1	-0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

363 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	1	3	6	3.89	high
minutes	16	24	31	23.33	medium
points	3	7	12	7.94	high
rebounds	1	2	3	1.94	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

363 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES92.5% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS143.9%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	vs ATL	26	32.19	-19.2%	12	5/6	3/4	2/2	0/0	0	2	2	1	1	0	1	2	+12.0	100%
2026-04-09	@ TOR	37	30.04	+23.2%	15	7/9	7/8	0/1	1/4	1	2	3	11	0	0	3	2	-17.0	70%
2026-04-07	@ TOR	23	31.65	-27.3%	9	4/11	3/6	1/5	0/0	1	0	1	6	0	0	1	3	-25.0	41%
2026-04-04	vs WAS	26	31.33	-17%	12	5/9	3/4	2/5	0/0	1	3	4	6	0	0	1	1	+19.0	67%
2026-04-01	vs BOS	40	28.48	+40.5%	21	8/15	3/5	5/10	0/0	0	2	2	7	0	0	0	2	+7.0	70%
2026-03-30	vs PHI	30	29.08	+3.2%	9	4/9	3/4	1/5	0/0	1	3	4	5	0	0	3	3	-2.0	50%
2026-03-29	@ IND	35	28.36	+23.4%	12	5/7	4/5	1/2	1/2	0	3	3	8	2	0	1	4	-9.0	76%
2026-03-27	@ CLE	24	28.46	-15.7%	2	1/6	1/2	0/4	0/0	1	3	4	4	0	0	4	2	-22.0	17%
2026-03-25	@ CLE	32	27.47	+16.5%	11	4/6	2/2	2/4	1/2	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	2	+5.0	80%
2026-03-23	vs SAS	22	28.27	-22.2%	2	1/4	1/2	0/2	0/0	0	2	2	3	2	0	1	3	-10.0	25%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS1.5%1/66 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/66 games

5+ ASSISTS78.8%52/66 games

2+ THREES42.4%28/66 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	MIA	66	29.0	9.7	2.7	6.7	49.2%	39.8%	65.1%
2024–25	MIA TOR	71	27.6	8.0	2.3	4.9	47.4%	40.5%	68.8%
2023–24	SAC	71	15.1	5.1	1.3	1.8	44.6%	35.1%	70.7%
2022–23	SAC	80	18.1	5.6	1.3	2.3	45.4%	32.0%	80.7%
2021–22	SAC	75	27.7	11.5	2.2	4.2	41.8%	31.6%	65.9%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	MIA	67	44.1	#192 / 409	14.3M	Rotation
2024–25	MIA	78	41.6	#244 / 422	12.4M	Rotation
2023–24	SAC	73	33.3	#351 / 409	6.7M	Depth
2022–23	SAC	87	32.2	#354 / 408	7M	Depth
2021–22	SAC	75	34.6	#341 / 423	8.7M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#192 OF 409

AF-PLAYER44.1descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#192of 409 ranked

PH$14.3MRotation

SAMPLE67observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-42.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+10.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+12.8 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY41+0.5 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

MIA

Miami Heat

EXPECTED MIN24.9

SCORING SHARE7.9%

CREATION SHARE24.3%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.0%

+2.82 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 44 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.