Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Andrew Wiggins
Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.32025–26
NBA RANK#157of 409
PH$16.4MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.7
PTS15.3
REB4.8
AST2.6
STL1.1
BLK1.0
3PM2.0
FG%46.7%
3P%40.9%
FT%78.6%
+/--0.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Miami Heat
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL26minutes
EXPECTED28.59pregame reference
DEVIATION-9%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G10.8 PTS · 2 REB · 1.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G10 PTS · 3 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G12 PTS · 3.2 REB · 1.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.6 PTS · 4.4 REB · 2.7 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.1%2747/5953
2-POINT51.2%1904/3717
3-POINT37.7%843/2236
FREE THROW71.7%1012/1411
EFFECTIVE FG%53.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.9%
AST / TO1.51
PTS PER 3619.72rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 224 | 31.42 | 17.57 | 4.69 | 2.54 | 1.98 | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| Away | 204 | 31.25 | 16.73 | 4.75 | 2.37 | 1.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.2 | +0.8 | -0.1 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.46 | high |
| minutes | 27 | 32 | 35.6 | 31.34 | low |
| points | 11 | 17 | 22.6 | 17.17 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4.72 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES194.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.2% of games
10+ ASSISTS20.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ATL | 26 | 28.59 | -9% | 4 | 1/9 | 1/5 | 0/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 | 20% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ TOR | 22 | 27.56 | -20.2% | 5 | 2/6 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +6.0 | 42% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ TOR | 33 | 25.66 | +28.6% | 24 | 8/13 | 4/6 | 4/7 | 4/5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -24.0 | 79% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs WAS | 26 | 25.4 | +2.4% | 21 | 7/11 | 3/6 | 4/5 | 3/4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +24.0 | 82% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs BOS | 32 | 22.73 | +40.8% | 13 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -17.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PHI | 36 | 16.97 | +112.1% | 14 | 6/13 | 4/8 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ IND | 37 | 10.99 | +236.7% | 15 | 5/14 | 2/8 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -13.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ CLE | 20 | 8.62 | +132% | 12 | 3/5 | 0/2 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -15.0 | 89% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ CLE | 24 | 5.99 | +300.9% | 12 | 5/9 | 3/4 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +2.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs SAS | 20 | 2.95 | +577.3% | 9 | 4/7 | 3/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -18.0 | 64% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS20.3%13/64 games
10+ REBOUNDS3.1%2/64 games
5+ ASSISTS14.1%9/64 games
2+ THREES64.1%41/64 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 64 | 30.7 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 46.7% | 40.9% | 78.6% |
| 2024–25 | MIAGSW | 59 | 30.8 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 44.7% | 37.0% | 76.3% |
| 2023–24 | GSW | 71 | 27.1 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 45.3% | 35.8% | 75.1% |
| 2022–23 | GSW | 37 | 32.2 | 17.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 47.3% | 39.6% | 61.1% |
| 2021–22 | GSW | 72 | 31.9 | 17.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 46.7% | 39.2% | 63.9% |
| 2020–21 | GSW | 71 | 33.3 | 18.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 47.7% | 38.0% | 71.4% |
| 2019–20 | GSWMIN | 54 | 34.4 | 21.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 44.7% | 33.3% | 70.9% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 65 | 46.3 | #157 / 409 | 16.4M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIA | 65 | 46.0 | #177 / 422 | 15.2M | Core |
| 2023–24 | GSW | 72 | 38.6 | #278 / 409 | 9.9M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | GSW | 50 | 44.0 | #186 / 408 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | GSW | 93 | 44.9 | #179 / 423 | 17.2M | Core |
| 2020–21 | GSW | 73 | 45.7 | #166 / 410 | 17.2M | Core |
| 2019–20 | GSW | 54 | 47.1 | #124 / 385 | 17.3M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#157of 409 ranked
PH$16.4MCore
SAMPLE65observed games
Ball security73
Box defence46
Creation33
Efficiency50
Rebounding33
Scoring53
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-33.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+3.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+11.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY31+0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN25.3
SCORING SHARE13.1%
CREATION SHARE9.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR74.0%
-2.46 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 37 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.