Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER73.82025–26
NBA RANK#2of 409
PH$21.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-2.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.0
PTS27.5
REB9.7
AST5.4
STL1.0
BLK0.7
3PM0.4
FG%62.8%
3P%33.3%
FT%64.8%
+/-+2.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Miami Heat
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED2.46pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G23.6 PTS · 12 REB · 7.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G25.6 PTS · 10.5 REB · 6 AST
creation↑
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS57.8%4644/8035
2-POINT62.6%4315/6891
3-POINT28.8%329/1144
FREE THROW65.9%2992/4541
EFFECTIVE FG%59.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.8%
AST / TO1.73
PTS PER 3632.67rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 217 | 32.48 | 29.94 | 11.76 | 5.97 | 0.74 | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Away | 208 | 32.92 | 29.38 | 11.71 | 5.9 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5.94 | medium |
| minutes | 29 | 33.7 | 37 | 32.7 | low |
| points | 23 | 30 | 36 | 29.67 | low |
| rebounds | 8 | 12 | 15 | 11.73 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES31874.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES429.9% of games
10+ ASSISTS5312.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | @ MIA | 29 | 18.52 | +56.6% | 31 | 12/24 | 12/22 | 0/2 | 7/11 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -8.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs PHX | 32 | 13.46 | +137.7% | 22 | 10/18 | 10/17 | 0/1 | 2/5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -12.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs UTA | 27 | 9.19 | +193.7% | 27 | 9/14 | 9/12 | 0/2 | 9/15 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +23.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-04 | vs ATL | 26 | 5.11 | +408.8% | 24 | 10/15 | 10/15 | 0/0 | 4/8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -24.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-02 | vs BOS | 25 | — | — | 19 | 7/18 | 7/16 | 0/2 | 5/7 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -16.0 | 45% |
| 2026-01-23 | vs DEN | 32 | — | — | 22 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 0/0 | 14/16 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +6.0 | 73% |
| 2026-01-21 | vs OKC | 31 | — | — | 19 | 8/11 | 8/11 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -11.0 | 70% |
| 2026-01-19 | @ ATL | 30 | — | — | 21 | 7/12 | 7/11 | 0/1 | 7/12 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -8.0 | 61% |
| 2026-01-15 | @ SAS | 22 | — | — | 21 | 7/12 | 6/11 | 1/1 | 6/9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -31.0 | 66% |
| 2026-01-13 | vs MIN | 31 | — | — | 25 | 9/13 | 9/12 | 0/1 | 7/14 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | -11.0 | 65% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS88.6%31/35 games
10+ REBOUNDS45.7%16/35 games
5+ ASSISTS60.0%21/35 games
2+ THREES5.7%2/35 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIL | 35 | 29.0 | 27.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 62.8% | 33.3% | 64.8% |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 66 | 34.1 | 30.3 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 60.1% | 21.0% | 61.2% |
| 2023–24 | MIL | 73 | 35.3 | 30.4 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 61.1% | 27.4% | 65.7% |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 63 | 32.2 | 31.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 55.3% | 27.5% | 64.5% |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 65 | 32.9 | 29.9 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 55.2% | 28.8% | 72.4% |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 60 | 33.0 | 27.8 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 56.9% | 29.6% | 68.7% |
| 2019–20 | MIL | 63 | 30.4 | 29.5 | 13.6 | 5.6 | 55.3% | 30.4% | 63.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIL | 35 | 73.8 | #2 / 409 | 21.7M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 72 | 75.5 | #2 / 422 | 28.4M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | MIL | 73 | 77.0 | #2 / 409 | 28.2M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 66 | 66.7 | #6 / 408 | 25.6M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 77 | 72.6 | #2 / 423 | 28.8M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 81 | 73.5 | #2 / 410 | 29.6M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | MIL | 73 | 72.8 | #1 / 385 | 28.2M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER73.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#2of 409 ranked
PH$21.7MCore
SAMPLE35observed games
Ball security50
Box defence46
Creation62
Efficiency87
Rebounding75
Scoring87
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+4.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-0.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+13.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY100-2.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
EXPECTED MIN17.2
SCORING SHARE24.5%
CREATION SHARE20.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR57.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.