Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Ajay Mitchell
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER49.32025–26
NBA RANK#119of 409
PH$17.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.9
PTS13.6
REB3.3
AST3.6
STL1.3
BLK0.3
3PM1.1
FG%48.2%
3P%35.1%
FT%86.9%
+/-+8.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.87pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.6 PTS · 1 REB · 2.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.4 PTS · 1.8 REB · 3.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6.3 PTS · 1.7 REB · 2.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G11.3 PTS · 2.9 REB · 3.7 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes↓
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.5%366/755
2-POINT54.0%283/524
3-POINT35.9%83/231
FREE THROW86.2%168/195
EFFECTIVE FG%54.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.5%
AST / TO2.46
PTS PER 3617.5rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 47 | 22.17 | 10.96 | 2.91 | 2.83 | 0.96 | 1.15 | 0.26 |
| Away | 44 | 22.27 | 10.64 | 2.55 | 2.95 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 0.18 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.89 | high |
| minutes | 16 | 23 | 29 | 22.22 | medium |
| points | 5 | 11 | 16 | 10.8 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.74 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES22.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS11.1%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 24 | 21.97 | +9.3% | 7 | 3/6 | 3/5 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 21 | 22.77 | -7.8% | 9 | 3/9 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7.0 | 46% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 19 | 20.73 | -8.3% | 7 | 3/9 | 2/5 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +15.0 | 39% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 16 | 20.16 | -20.6% | 10 | 4/7 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +25.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 36 | 18.29 | +96.8% | 14 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 0/1 | 6/6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 24 | 17.88 | +34.2% | 8 | 2/4 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 2/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 25 | 17.71 | +41.1% | 8 | 4/9 | 4/6 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 15 | 19.19 | -21.8% | 14 | 6/10 | 4/8 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 28 | 14.75 | +89.9% | 16 | 5/12 | 4/9 | 1/3 | 5/5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -9.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-15 | vs MIN | 27 | 10.59 | +155% | 11 | 4/13 | 3/9 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.0 | 40% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS12.7%7/55 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/55 games
5+ ASSISTS23.6%13/55 games
2+ THREES34.5%19/55 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 66 | 49.3 | #119 / 409 | 17.7M | Core |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 49 | 39.9 | #274 / 422 | 7.9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER49.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#119of 409 ranked
PH$17.7MCore
SAMPLE66observed games
Ball security69
Box defence44
Creation62
Efficiency48
Rebounding20
Scoring57
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+35.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-26.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN21.5
SCORING SHARE11.8%
CREATION SHARE14.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.6%
+15.41 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 41 normal-load / 6 nonparticipation games.