Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER53.52025–26
NBA RANK#68of 409
PH$17.4MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.4
PTS17.0
REB4.6
AST5.4
STL1.2
BLK0.3
3PM0.7
FG%48.4%
3P%30.7%
FT%84.8%
+/-+6.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED16pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.6 PTS · 1.6 REB · 2.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17.2 PTS · 3.2 REB · 6.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G7.2 PTS · 2.1 REB · 2.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G16.8 PTS · 4.1 REB · 6.4 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS50.9%1723/3385
2-POINT55.5%1400/2524
3-POINT37.5%323/861
FREE THROW81.0%677/836
EFFECTIVE FG%55.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.2%
AST / TO2.4
PTS PER 3620.92rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 124 | 30.54 | 17.95 | 4.62 | 4.31 | 1.25 | 1.37 | 0.62 |
| Away | 123 | 31.42 | 18.05 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 0.47 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.9 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.45 | high |
| minutes | 27.2 | 32 | 35 | 30.98 | low |
| points | 12 | 18 | 24 | 18 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4.59 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES104.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS72.8%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 32 | 14.55 | +119.9% | 18 | 7/12 | 7/11 | 0/1 | 4/4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +13.0 | 65% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 26 | 15.85 | +64.1% | 15 | 5/9 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 4/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +31.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 23 | 12.33 | +86.5% | 10 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +31.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 29 | 7.9 | +267.3% | 22 | 7/11 | 6/10 | 1/1 | 7/7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 24 | 4.07 | +490.3% | 7 | 2/9 | 2/6 | 0/3 | 3/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 20 | — | — | 18 | 8/14 | 7/11 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +9.0 | 61% |
| 2026-02-11 | @ PHX | 20 | 4.78 | +318.4% | 28 | 11/12 | 9/10 | 2/2 | 4/5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +19.0 | 99% |
| 2026-02-09 | @ LAL | 24 | — | — | 23 | 6/17 | 6/15 | 0/2 | 11/13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -10.0 | 51% |
| 2026-01-17 | @ MIA | 14 | — | — | 8 | 3/5 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4.0 | 80% |
| 2026-01-15 | @ HOU | 31 | — | — | 6 | 2/11 | 2/10 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 25% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS34.4%11/32 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/32 games
5+ ASSISTS65.6%21/32 games
2+ THREES15.6%5/32 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 37 | 53.5 | #68 / 409 | 17.4M | Core |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 93 | 56.0 | #50 / 422 | 25.7M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | OKC | 81 | 56.3 | #53 / 409 | 24.3M | Core |
| 2022–23 | OKC | 77 | 47.3 | #137 / 408 | 17.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER53.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#68of 409 ranked
PH$17.4MCore
SAMPLE37observed games
Ball security68
Box defence40
Creation74
Efficiency44
Rebounding29
Scoring71
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-4.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-27.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN16.2
SCORING SHARE14.2%
CREATION SHARE21.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR57.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.