CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Atlanta Hawks · current teamGCanadaVirginia Tech

AF-PLAYER49.22025–26

NBA RANK#121of 409

PH$20.2MCore · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN25.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-1.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES453

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS10.6

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS2.6

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS2.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

77 games

MIN33.4

PTS20.8

REB3.4

AST3.7

STL1.3

BLK0.5

3PM3.2

FG%45.8%

3P%39.8%

FT%90.2%

+/-+2.9

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Orlando Magic50.6% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Charlotte Hornets42.8% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs Houston Rockets55.0% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Houston Rockets40.4% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Miami Heat61.2% winProjected 114–116

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED34.5pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G15.8 PTS · 1.4 REB · 1.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G25.6 PTS · 3.2 REB · 2.6 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G19.6 PTS · 2.9 REB · 2.9 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G23.9 PTS · 3.3 REB · 3.7 AST

creation↓

efficiency↑

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring↑

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 453 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS42.6%1697/3987

2-POINT48.9%897/1836

3-POINT37.2%800/2151

FREE THROW81.0%604/746

EFFECTIVE FG%52.6%

TRUE SHOOTING%55.6%

AST / TO1.92

PTS PER 3616.65rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

224 HOME · 229 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	224	22.81	10.44	2.62	2.61	1.74	0.79	0.4
Away	229	23	10.74	2.64	2.47	1.79	0.78	0.42
Home − Away	—	-0.2	-0.3	-0.0	+0.1	-0.1	+0.0	-0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

453 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	1	2	4	2.54	high
minutes	15	23	32.2	22.91	medium
points	3	9	17	10.59	high
rebounds	1	2	4	2.63	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

453 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES51.1% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS10.2%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-10	vs CLE	32	34.98	-8.5%	18	7/13	4/5	3/8	1/1	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	3	+29.0	67%
2026-04-08	@ CLE	39	34.3	+13.7%	25	10/19	6/10	4/9	1/1	0	4	4	2	2	0	4	3	-13.0	64%
2026-04-06	vs NYK	39	34.3	+13.7%	36	12/19	5/8	7/11	5/5	1	1	2	3	0	1	2	1	-4.0	85%
2026-04-01	@ ORL	33	33.45	-1.3%	32	11/16	6/7	5/9	5/6	1	4	5	1	2	1	3	3	+28.0	86%
2026-03-30	vs BOS	35	32.49	+7.7%	17	6/16	3/8	3/8	2/3	2	2	4	6	0	0	1	3	+1.0	49%
2026-03-28	vs SAC	36	31.48	+14.4%	27	7/14	3/5	4/9	9/9	1	4	5	8	4	0	2	1	+25.0	75%
2026-03-27	@ BOS	38	30.44	+24.8%	20	6/13	4/8	2/5	6/7	0	4	4	5	2	0	0	4	-8.0	62%
2026-03-25	@ DET	40	30.26	+32.2%	21	9/18	6/8	3/10	0/0	2	2	4	3	0	0	1	1	0.0	58%
2026-03-23	vs MEM	26	31.39	-17.2%	26	8/11	4/5	4/6	6/6	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	3	+29.0	95%
2026-03-21	vs GSW	27	31.65	-14.7%	17	4/9	2/3	2/6	7/7	0	2	2	1	2	0	1	3	+24.0	70%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS58.4%45/77 games

10+ REBOUNDS1.3%1/77 games

5+ ASSISTS31.2%24/77 games

2+ THREES84.4%65/77 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	ATL	77	33.4	20.8	3.4	3.7	45.8%	39.8%	90.2%
2024–25	MIN	78	25.1	9.3	3.2	2.7	43.3%	38.4%	80.0%
2023–24	MIN	82	23.5	8.0	2.0	2.5	43.9%	39.1%	80.0%
2022–23	UTA MIN	59	14.9	6.2	1.7	1.8	44.4%	38.4%	66.7%
2021–22	UTA NOP	65	22.6	10.7	2.9	2.4	37.2%	31.1%	74.3%
2020–21	NOP	45	21.9	11.0	3.0	2.2	41.8%	35.0%	71.9%
2019–20	NOP	47	12.6	5.7	1.8	1.9	36.8%	34.6%	67.6%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	ATL	83	49.2	#121 / 409	20.2M	Core
2024–25	MIN	93	36.6	#320 / 422	9.7M	Depth
2023–24	MIN	98	35.7	#327 / 409	9M	Depth
2022–23	MIN	66	38.9	#269 / 408	8.4M	Depth
2021–22	UTA	83	33.1	#366 / 423	7.2M	Depth
2020–21	NOP	53	39.5	#272 / 410	8.3M	Depth
2019–20	NOP	67	31.3	#323 / 385	6.1M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#121 OF 409

AF-PLAYER49.2descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#121of 409 ranked

PH$20.2MCore

SAMPLE83observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+19.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+46.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-8.5 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY57-1.2 pp next-game What If impact

UNDERUSED BREAKOUT WATCH

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

EXPECTED MIN31.0

SCORING SHARE17.3%

CREATION SHARE12.7%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.2%

-1.40 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 70 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.