Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Tony Bradley
Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.02025–26
NBA RANK#193of 409
PH$9.4MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN6.9governed role
NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN11.7
PTS4.1
REB3.0
AST0.6
STL0.1
BLK0.2
3PM0.0
FG%53.8%
3P%33.3%
FT%75.0%
+/--3.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL22minutes
EXPECTED4.23pregame reference
DEVIATION+420%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.2 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3.4 PTS · 2 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.1 PTS · 0.9 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT8 G4 PTS · 2.5 REB · 0.5 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS62.8%404/643
2-POINT63.1%396/628
3-POINT53.3%8/15
FREE THROW68.6%118/172
EFFECTIVE FG%63.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%65.0%
AST / TO0.99
PTS PER 3614.18rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 110 | 10.67 | 4.34 | 3.87 | 0.53 | 0.05 | 0.2 | 0.47 |
| Away | 99 | 12.08 | 4.62 | 3.97 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.54 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.53 | high |
| minutes | 4 | 11.4 | 16.9 | 11.34 | high |
| points | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.47 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3.92 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES41.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ MIA | 22 | 4.23 | +420% | 4 | 2/6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18.0 | 33% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs CLE | 9 | 2.07 | +335.8% | 7 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14.0 | 117% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs NYK | 4 | — | — | 0 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2.0 | 0% |
| 2026-01-21 | @ BOS | 6 | 13.44 | -55.3% | 2 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | 20% |
| 2026-01-19 | @ PHI | 18 | 10.89 | +65.3% | 8 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 80% |
| 2026-01-16 | vs NOP | 19 | 9.35 | +103.2% | 3 | 1/4 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 | 31% |
| 2026-01-14 | vs TOR | 20 | — | — | 2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | 114% |
| 2026-01-12 | vs BOS | 6 | — | — | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | — |
| 2026-01-08 | @ CHA | 15 | — | — | 7 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +7.0 | 102% |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ORL | 7 | — | — | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | — |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/34 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/34 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/34 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/34 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ATL | 39 | 44.0 | #193 / 409 | 9.4M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 80 | 47.5 | #133 / 423 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | OKC | 70 | 60.1 | #28 / 410 | 18.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | UTA | 76 | 56.6 | #42 / 385 | 17.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#193of 409 ranked
PH$9.4MDepth
SAMPLE39observed games
Ball security51
Box defence27
Creation22
Efficiency59
Rebounding71
Scoring25
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+42.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-4.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY62-1.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
IND
Indiana Pacers
EXPECTED MIN8.3
SCORING SHARE3.7%
CREATION SHARE2.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
EXPECTED MIN6.1
SCORING SHARE2.2%
CREATION SHARE1.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR58.8%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.